Express View on France’s election: Macron’s gamble

There is little doubt that French President Emmanuel Macron — and the centrist, pro-market politics he represents — will have to navigate a political minefield in the months to come. The just-concluded parliamentary elections in France have delivered a deeply fractured mandate. The New Popular Front (NFP) — a hastily-formed alliance of Left and Green parties after the first round of voting last week — emerged as the surprising frontrunner with 182 seats in the 577-strong assembly. Macron’s Together coalition came in second with 163 MPs and the far-Right National Rally (RN) came in third — after being the single largest bloc in the first round and in the European elections — with 143 seats. It might be tempting to claim, with hindsight, that Macron’s gamble of calling snap polls after the EU election results has succeeded in keeping the RN at bay. Such a view, however, ignores both the nature of the mandate and its implications for France, Europe and the global order.

The fact is that it took last-minute alliances and calls for “tactical voting” to keep the RN in third place. Even so, it reached its current tally from 89 seats in the last election. Marine Le Pen has succeeded in mainstreaming the Far Right, even though the young star of her party, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, will not be PM, as was widely expected after the first round. In turn, the NFP is riddled with internal contradictions, especially between the more centrist socialists and the radical Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Unbowed. On issues like religious identity and migrant rights, the Far Right will step up its efforts at polarisation, while Macron’s pro-market “reforms” will come up against an empowered Left. In Europe, there is relief at the verdict as the RN is widely seen as close to Russia and may have pushed for reduced support to Ukraine. However, voices on the Left, too, have been calling for a negotiated end to the war.

It is clear, then, that rather than empowering him, Macron’s gamble has left him weaker. The French president has played hardball with protesters on issues like raising the retirement age and broad discontent over the economy seen in the Yellow Jacket protests. His policies and politics must take at least some blame for the most fractured election result since Charles de Gaulle ushered in the Fifth Republic. Macron’s record thus far has been mixed. He must now step up and learn the art of negotiation and coalitions — largely alien to France’s recent history. He must work with those on the Left and Right who lean towards the centre. Else, the hindsight at the end of his tenure might provide a clear — and clearly negative — picture of his presidency.