What to Expect in the Biden-Trump Presidential Debate

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at the U.S. presidential debate, election drama in Iran, and China’s latest high-ranking party purge.

Two Mics, 90 Minutes

U.S. President Joe Biden and former U.S. President Donald Trump square off in Atlanta late Thursday in their first debate ahead of this November’s presidential election. This is the first time in U.S. history that both candidates have been or currently are president. Yet Biden and Trump are also the least liked pair of major U.S. party candidates in more than three decades, with a quarter of U.S. citizens viewing both unfavorably, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted last month.

Although domestic issues are likely to take center stage, foreign policy will remain a key battleground. One issue expected to be discussed at length is immigration concerns at the U.S. southern border. The Biden administration has ushered in minor changes in recent weeks, such as new asylum eligibility measures, to try to appease border security concerns. Trump, though, will likely attempt to paint a dystopian picture of rampant, unchecked migration and blame Biden for record-high numbers of illegal crossings.

Wars in the Middle East and Europe are also expected to feature prominently during the debate. Although both candidates are staunch supporters of Israel, Trump has expressed doubt about the viability of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the peace proposal he presented during his tenure departed from long-standing U.S. policy by abandoning the goal of establishing a fully autonomous, sovereign Palestinian state. Biden continues to argue for a two-state solution, reaffirming Israel’s right to security while seeking a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war. However, he has received heavy criticism from far-left members of his own party for his failure to more forcefully push Israel to curb civilian deaths in Gaza and do more to address the humanitarian crisis there.

As for Ukraine, Biden will likely denounce Trump’s past criticisms of continued support for Kyiv in its fight against Moscow. “The contrast between Biden’s internationalism and Trump’s isolationism is starker than at any moment in the history of televised presidential debates,” historian Jeremi Suri argued in Foreign Policy. Biden is expected to condemn Trump’s efforts to delegitimize major U.S. alliances such as NATO as well as criticize Trump’s admiration for foreign dictators such as Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

There are a few areas where Biden and Trump largely agree—most notably on China. The two candidates have sought better U.S. business protections against unfair foreign competition, such as through tariffs. Trump launched a trade war on China in 2018 that Biden has largely continued.

Domestically, the debate is expected to highlight issues surrounding high inflation; abortion bans; both candidates’ ages and health; the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection and Trump’s promise to pardon its participants; the conviction of Biden’s son for purchasing and possessing a firearm while addicted to crack cocaine; and Trump’s felony conviction for falsifying records to hide hush money paid to adult film star Stormy Daniels as well as his two impeachments and other ongoing indictments.

CNN’s Jake Tapper and Dana Bash will moderate the 90-minute debate beginning at 9 p.m. EDT. There will be no live audience, and microphones will be muted while the other is speaking to avoid crosstalk. In 2020, frequent interruptions—particularly from Trump—led Biden to famously say, “Will you shut up, man?” ABC News will host a second (and final) debate on Sept. 10.

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What We’re Following

Elections in Iran. Tehran will hold an early presidential election on Friday following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month. On Thursday, two hard-line candidates dropped out of the race to urge for unity against moderate candidate Masoud Pezeshkian. Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani and Vice President Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi were collectively only polling under 4 percent before they left the race.

Four candidates, including Pezeshkian, remain in the running, all of whom have advocated for different paths to lift Western sanctions. Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the front-runner candidate, seeks to revive the U.S. nuclear deal that Trump pulled out of in 2018, whereas Pezeshkian argues that institutional reforms are key to ending Iran’s global isolation. The election will likely influence the succession of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is 85 years old. If a simple majority is not achieved on Friday, a runoff will be scheduled for July 5.

Despite holding elections, Iran remains a theocracy in which ultimate religious and political authority lies with the supreme leader, who serves for life. Khamenei, who has been in power for 35 years, oversees the Guardian Council, which vets presidential candidates and can bar any who could pose a credible challenge to the regime from running in elections.

Military purges. Beijing expelled former Defense Minister Li Shangfu and his predecessor, Wei Fenghe, from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on Thursday. Both were accused of “serious violation of party discipline and the law” as well as accepting bribes. These allegations could lead to life imprisonment. Li disappeared from the public eye for almost two months before being removed from office last October; the CCP gave no reason for his sudden dismissal.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has made cracking down on corruption a key part of his reign. To kick off 2024, Xi removed nine high-ranking generals from the National People’s Congress, and The Associated Press reported on Thursday that there is an ongoing, widespread purge of officers suspected of conspiring with outside forces or being disloyal to Xi. “In the long run, Xi may see the purges as necessary to get the army in fighting shape for a putative war over Taiwan,” FP’s James Palmer wrote in January. “But in the short term, it’s about his own control of a vital institution.”

Coup leader arrested. Mere hours after Bolivian armed forces stormed the presidential palace and seized the city center of La Paz on Wednesday, authorities arrested attempted coup leader Gen. Juan José Zuñiga. Zuñiga was dismissed on Tuesday over comments criticizing former President Evo Morales, who is running for reelection in 2025. Zuñiga claims to have been acting on President Luis Arce’s orders, though no evidence of that was given. Arce swore in José Wilson Sánchez to replace Zuñiga as Bolivia’s military chief on Thursday.

Arce has since ordered all personnel to return to their units, saying, “We entreat that the blood of our soldiers not be spilled.” The Bolivian government and international leaders largely condemned the attempted coup. Bolivia has a long history of political instability, with almost 40 attempted or successful coups since 1946.

Odds and Ends

Losing can be difficult no matter the outcome, but one aspiring Canadian politician has had to swallow a particularly bitter pill. On Monday, musician and independent candidate Félix-Antoine Hamel received zero votes in Toronto-St. Paul’s local election—making him the first Canadian to ever face such an electoral loss. “When I saw the result, I was like, ‘Well, I am the true unity candidate. Everyone agrees not to vote for me,’” Hamel told CBC News. Despite everything, at the end of the day, Hamel will certainly be remembered.