What to Expect from Israel’s Rafah Offensive

Despite an ongoing eleventh-hour attempt to secure a cease-fire in Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said on Monday that Israel’s war cabinet had unanimously decided to proceed with its military operation in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, which Israeli officials say is Hamas’s last major holdout. 

Even as top United Nations officials have warned that a Rafah invasion could push the 1.5 million Palestinians who have encamped there over the border into Egypt—essentially making resolving the conflict impossible—Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told Israel Defense Forces (IDF) troops on Sunday that an invasion is imminent. 

And early Monday, the Israeli military began preparing the battlefield with airstrikes on Rafah, signaling a possible imminent ground operation; it also ordered 100,000 Palestinians—just a fraction of those sheltering in Rafah—to evacuate to an Israeli-established humanitarian zone along the Mediterranean coast. 

If Israeli troops do advance into Rafah in an attempt to eradicate the four Hamas battalions believed to be there, experts say they will face a battle-hardened enemy that has the ability to fight and resupply through a vast network of tunnels, all while Israeli troops try to get tens of thousands—if not millions—of civilians out of the way. 

In other cities where the IDF has fought since this war began, such as Khan Younis, troops were able to move neighborhood by neighborhood, sector by sector, clearing out people as they needed to. But larger masses of people will likely be forced out this time as the IDF moves in. “Rafah is going to fundamentally look a bit different,” said Jonathan Lord, a senior fellow and the director of the Middle East security program at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based think tank. It “isn’t quite as clean, necessarily.” 

The Hamas battalions fighting in Rafah are “fairly indigenous” to the area, Lord said. They rely on the Philadelphi Corridor, a dense network of tunnels. The Israelis have tried to put in a subterranean wall to block Hamas’s use of the corridor but haven’t been successful.  

“Hamas is most likely dug in and prepared to fight from emplaced positions where they have access to tunnels and resupply and the ability to exfiltrate and escape and move around,” Lord said. “That becomes a little bit harder in some of the improvised humanitarian areas.” 

Michael Mulroy, a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense now working with Fogbow, a group helping to set up the aid pier in Gaza, said the Israelis have told NGOs that the evacuation will take about 10 days, though aid groups believe it could take substantially longer. Mulroy said the operation could shut down border crossings into Gaza for up to three to four weeks. Rafah, which borders Egypt, is home to the only border crossing into Gaza that Israel does not directly control.

And it’s not clear that the Israelis have set up enough temporary housing, hospitals, and security to make the evacuation workable. The Israeli government has begun setting up 40,000 tents in Mawasi, a beachside area where there are less likely to be Hamas tunnels, but humanitarian groups say that number is far short of what is needed. 

“The immediate conclusion is going to be, what are you going to do with all of these people?” said Bilal Y. Saab, an associate fellow with Chatham House in London and a former U.S. defense official.

Hamas might also want civilians in the way, analysts said, and could even potentially impede their exit. Some former military officials are even worried that the militant group could take human shields.

“You need to reduce the number of civilians in there,” said Kenneth McKenzie, a retired Marine general and the head of U.S. Central Command until 2022. “The fact of the matter is, Hamas will try to make that not happen. Hamas has no interest in evacuating civilians, regardless of what they say.” 

Mulroy said the Israelis will need at least two divisions, a paratrooper and an armored element, alongside smaller detachments of artillery and special operations forces. But there are still high-level tactical arguments taking place between the Netanyahu and Biden administrations about how the campaign would be conducted. 

“It’s going to be a multidimensional fight,” McKenzie said. “They’re going to have to fight underground, they’re going to have to fight on the surface of the Earth, they’re going to have to fight in the low-Earth atmosphere, because Hamas will probably fly lots of drones. Israel will certainly fly drones. It’s going to be another tough, bloody, ugly fight, which Israel will have lessons learned from their fights [in northern Gaza]. Hamas will have lessons learned from the fights up north. Both sides will apply them.”

In a phone call with Netanyahu on Monday, U.S. President Joe Biden reiterated his opposition to a Rafah ground operation, and White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said Israel had not yet provided the United States with a comprehensive plan for its operations in Rafah. 

“The U.S. would like to see [Rafah] as more of a surgical, intel-driven probe with reconnaissance [to] find the mass of Hamas fighting militants and then streamline your combat power directly to it,” Mulroy said. “The Israelis—at least from what I know—are [planning for] more like a Fallujah-type, mass movement, block-to-block fight,” he added, referencing the pitched urban battles that U.S. troops fought in Iraq following the 2003 invasion. 

Whether Netanyahu and his war cabinet will end up being receptive to Washington’s wishes or instead choose to forge ahead and do things their own way remains to be seen. But experts aren’t holding out much hope.

“Have they actually decided to further alienate the Americans?” Saab said. “We keep telling them, don’t do it, and [Netanyahu] is about to do it.”