Markets could see 'knee-jerk' positive jump to Trump victory

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President Biden remains committed to staying in the 2024 US presidential race, telling ABC's George Stephanopoulos that he can "take this nationhood to a completely new level" in an interview on Friday, July 5. Mega donors and members of Biden's own party have been urging the sitting president to exit from his reelection campaign after his poor debate performance against former President Trump.

The Morning Brief welcomes Raymond James Managing Director Ed Mills to discuss Democrat consensus on Biden's future leadership — saying Biden's ABC interview "didn't do enough... to quiet critics" — and how US equity markets (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) could react to this year's election outcome.

"I think that there are a knee jerk reaction that a Trump victory could be a boost to the market, especially in areas that are heavily regulated. That have seen slowdowns of M&A. Or could benefit from the continuation of the tax cuts. So financials kind of front and foremost on that list, I think you would see a bid in bank stocks in a Trump victory," Mills explains. "But the thing I do remind folks at Raymond James is that when we go back to the first term of President Trump, there were multiple times where the S&P 500 [was] down more than 20% over the China trade fight, and he's vowed to restart that."

Mills also comments on what a Kamala Harris candidacy could look like in the scenario that the vice president steps in for Biden.

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Morning Brief.

This post was written by Luke Carberry Mogan.

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