The second quarter of 2024 was rewarding for equity investors, as the S&P 500 increased another 4% and has gained almost 15% year to date. Growth was the segment leader in 2Q, as the S&P 500 Growth Index advanced approximately 8% in the period while the S&P 500 Value Index declined slightly. Leading sectors included Information Technology and Communication Services, while sectors in the red for the past three months included Real Estate, Materials, Industrials, Financial, and Energy. The average stock in the Argus Universe of Coverage declined 2.4% during the quarter, while the median stock dropped 3.0%. The average BUY-rated stock declined 0.7%, while the average HOLD-rated stock gained 6.7%. Will the rally broaden in 2H24, or will investors keep focusing on Tech and Communications groups? Will small-caps pick up their pace (the Russell 2000 was up 1.8% in 1H24), or is the current bull market rally due for a break, with some profit-taking coming into play? Given declining interest rates, we expect growth stocks to continue to carry the bull market, while the risk of recession puts a premium on clean balance sheets, which are also more prevalent among large-caps. Investors seeking value are encouraged to focus on dividends and look for yields in the 3-4% range. Here are the top 10 performers from the Argus Universe last quarter, including, somewhat surprisingly, representatives of five of the 11 major sectors, as well as the five worst performers.

Stocks are at all-time highs and have logged gains at mid-year that would be acceptable for a full year. But recent sentiment among investors has been held hostage by interest-rate obsession, with peaks for stocks on days when the data suggests a cut is needed and valleys on days when rates seem destined to stay high. Indeed, the one-month charts for the major indices are roller coaster in nature. According to Mark Arbeter, Argus' Chartered Market Technician, the AAII survey is showing 39% bulls and 32% bears, while the CNN Fear & Greed Index is at 45%. Both show a neutral attitude towards stocks. That's fuel for higher stock prices according to Mark, but we need a catalyst or two to get investors off the sidelines.

In this edition, checking in on the hotel REIT recovery; looking at Palo Alto's strengths and weaknesses; where generative AI can pay off for patient investors; and Fresenius SE, British American Tobacco, and Nio.

In this edition, checking in on the hotel REIT recovery; looking at Palo Alto's strengths and weaknesses; where generative AI can pay off for patient investors; and Fresenius SE, British American Tobacco, and Nio.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Can AI Still Drive the Market?

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Innovation may be hard to define but, to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles, to a large degree - have moved overseas, where costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy is at its largest point in history and still growing. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products and services, and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would be contracting, not expanding, and capital would not be flooding into the country. Particularly at this juncture of the market and economic cycles, when uncertainty is high due to high inflation and rising interest rates, we look to innovative companies to navigate the challenges. At Argus, a 90-year-old independent research firm that has innovated a time or two in its long history, we have focused on four types of innovative companies: Industry Disruptors; First to Market; New Product Specialists; and Product & Process Perfectors. Here are some examples of companies, featured in our Innovation Theme Model Portfolio.

The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles to a large degree - have moved overseas, where labor and materials costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, even during the pandemic and the current period of high inflation, has expanded to record levels. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products (such as vaccines and AI) and services (such as Zoom calls) and moving into new markets, the domestic economy would not be growing, and capital would not be flooding into the country. The current high level of the U.S. dollar relative to currencies around the world attests to the confidence that global investors have in the durable and innovative U.S. economy.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The first quarter of 2024 was rewarding for equity investors, as the S&P 500 increased 10.2%. Much of the market participated, as the S&P 500 Growth Index advanced 12.6% and the S&P 500 Value Index rose 7.4%. Leading sectors included Communication Services (+15.6%), Energy (+12.7%), Technology (+12.5%), Financials (+12%), and Industrials (+10.6%). The average stock in the Argus Universe of Coverage rose 8.0% during the year, and the median stock advanced 7.2%. The average BUY-rated stock increased 9.9%, while the average HOLD-rated stock gained 3%. Will the market's breadth hold up for the balance of 2024 or will investors revert to the so-called Magnificent 7? Will small-caps pick up their pace (the Russell 2000 was up "only" 4.8% in 1Q) or is the current bull-market rally due for a break, with some profit-taking coming into play? Given declining interest rates, we expect growth stocks to continue to lead stocks higher, while the risk of recession puts a premium on clean balance sheets, which are also more prevalent among large-caps. Investors seeking value are encouraged to focus on dividends and look for yields in the 3%-4% range. Here are the Top 10 Performers from the Argus Universe last quarter (including representatives of six of the 11 major sectors) as well as the Bottom-Five Performers.

After the heavy-volume, bearish reversal on March 8 for the Nasdaq, Nasdasq 100 (QQQ), semiconductors, and most of the Technology sector, we had some downside follow-through for the first time since this monster rally started in October 2023. The QQQs and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) have lost their 21-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) by a minor amount. Still, for more than four months, the 21-day EMA has been quickly recaptured whenever this happened.

Determining a realistic estimate for the size of the Artificial Intelligence industry is a challenge, as there is simply no measurable unit of AI output comparable to barrels of oil or tons of steel. As well, much of the AI development occurs within laboratories and at universities - and results are measured in tangible progress against AI objectives, not dollars or units of output. In the corporate world, nearly all pure-play AI companies service micro-niches, have little measurable revenue, and are deeply unprofitable. Argus believes that much of the revenue and most of the profitability from the AI industry is attributable to several giant U.S. and a few international companies. These primarily operate in growth sectors such as Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary. Key companies include Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Meta Platforms, IBM, Alphabet, Salesforce, Nvidia, and Qualcomm in the U.S. China has Baidu, Tencent, and Alibaba all developing AI solutions. There is also significant activity among companies pursuing advances in IoT, vehicle electrification, autonomous driving, automation, and connectivity for manufacturing, warehousing, construction, and other areas. Argus has derived a model of the size and scope of the global AI industry, based on our coverage of major publicly traded players and most of the mid-tier players, along with our industry knowledge of private players. We estimate the global industry annual revenue amounted to $90-$100 billion in 2021, and expect that to grow at a 40% CAGR through 2030, when it is expected to reach $1.8 trillion. Annual growth is expected to decelerate from the low- to mid-40% range in the immediate years, to the mid-30% range for years toward the end of the survey period.

Determining a realistic estimate for the size of the Artificial Intelligence industry is a challenge, as there is simply no measurable unit of AI output comparable to barrels of oil or tons of steel. As well, much of the AI development occurs within laboratories and at universities - and results are measured in tangible progress against AI objectives, not dollars or units of output. In the corporate world, nearly all pure-play AI companies service micro-niches, have little measurable revenue, and are deeply unprofitable. Argus believes that much of the revenue and most of the profitability from the AI industry is attributable to several giant U.S. and a few international companies. These primarily operate in growth sectors such as Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary. Key companies include Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Meta Platforms, IBM, Alphabet, Salesforce, Nvidia, and Qualcomm in the U.S. China has Baidu, Tencent, and Alibaba all developing AI solutions. There is also significant activity among companies pursuing advances in IoT, vehicle electrification, autonomous driving, automation, and connectivity for manufacturing, warehousing, construction, and other areas. Argus has derived a model of the size and scope of the global AI industry, based on our coverage of major publicly traded players and most of the mid-tier players, along with our industry knowledge of private players. We estimate the global industry annual revenue amounted to $90-$100 billion in 2021, and expect that to grow at a 40% CAGR through 2030, when it is expected to reach $1.8 trillion. Annual growth is expected to decelerate from the low- to mid-40% range in the immediate years, to the mid-30% range for years toward the end of the survey period.

Bumps in the Soft Landing

Stock indices dipped in October 2023, with the S&P 500 falling a sharp 10% off summer highs. Looking at 13F filings of big institutional portfolios, we see that the big guns were busy last quarter taking advantage of that dip. Citadel Advisors went on a buying spree, adding to its $100 billion portfolio across a range of sectors. As did D.E. Shaw, adding to its $67 billion portfolio. Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters and have come in for 4Q24. We review 13Fs of major activists to determine core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing is now less about generating a short-term return and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Based on data from Vickers, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers.

It seems that a new week means a new stock market. The major indices bolted higher on Monday after last week's scare. The S&P 500 rose 1.4%, the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 both popped a bit over 2%, the S&P 400 added 1.3%, and the Russell 2000 jumped 1.8%. Market breadth did not match the strength of the indices, with NYSE advances-declines at 1,576, NYSE advancing issues/total issues at 74%, and NYSE up volume/total volume at only 64%. There were a number of smaller stocks on the NYSE that fell on huge volume (40-50 million shares), so the volume stats may have been skewed by issues that simply don't matter to the broader market.

Here is the list of the Top Picks for 2024 from the Argus team of analysts. The team is deeply experienced, as each analyst has spent ,on average, 25 years on Wall Street and 15 years at Argus Research. As such, our analysts are extremely well-versed in our proprietary fundamental six-point system and the sectors they cover. They also have solid relationships with many of the management teams they cover. But they do not operate in a vacuum. An Investment Policy Committee (IPC) comprised of Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA; President John Eade; Chief Compliance Officer & Senior Financial Analyst Kevin Heal; and Director of Financial Institutions Research Steve Biggar provide macro outlooks for the economy, interest rates, earnings, and the stock market. The IPC reviews all proposed ratings changes. Our list below is organized by sector.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

In 2023, the S&P 500 climbed almost 24%, skewed heavily by a handful of tech and consumer stocks that recovered from the pandemic. The top-10 stocks in the Argus Universe advanced, on average, 180%, while the top-20 rose 140%. The average stock rose 17%, and the median stock advanced 7%. The average BUY-rated stock increased 20%, while the average HOLD-rated stock gained 8%. Will investors continue to favor growth in 2024? Will small-caps reverse their recent thrust as the risk of recession puts a premium on clean balance sheets? Investors seeking value are encouraged to focus on dividends and yields in the 3%-4% range. As for small-caps and international stocks, valuations remain depressed -- and these group looks to offer value into 2024 as market breadth likely widens. Below are the top-10 performers from the Argus Universe last year, with representatives in six of the 11 major sectors, as well as the bottom-five performers.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

In this edition, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley should keep market share; upgrading Coloplast's economic moat; picking up Spirit Aerosystems; and Broadcom, Zoom technologies, and Nvidia.

The stock market continues to fly higher and seems to be in one of those phases when investors wait for a pullback that never comes -- or happens at prices that are much higher than they are 'today.' It's a 'the stock market that won't let me in' scenario, as every pause is short before a next run to the upside. We call these 'lockout rallies.' If you were loaded with stocks at the recent bottom, you're loving it. If you weren't, it's excruciating.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Innovation may be hard to define. But to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles to a large degree - have moved overseas, where labor and materials costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, even during the pandemic and the current period of high inflation, has expanded to record levels. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products (such as vaccines) and services (such as Zoom calls) and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would not be growing, and capital would not be flooding into the country. The current high level of the U.S. dollar relative to currencies around the world attests to the confidence that global investors have in the durable and innovative U.S. economy.

Growth sectors soared on spiking AI interest from May through July, before stumbling in August and face-planting in September. As AI mania took hold, the "magnificent seven" stocks (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, NVDA, TSLA, MSFT, and META) led the U.S. market through July. In September, all but META declined in high-single-digit percentages. Concentration in perceived AI winners drove gains in growth sectors -- Communication Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary -- in the first seven months of 2023. Although these sectors were dinged in August and smacked in September, they continue to lead for the year, with gains of 40%, 35%, and 27%, respectively. Beyond the big three, the best sectors at the nine-month mark are Energy (up 6%), Industrials (up 5%) and Materials (up 3%). Every sector but Energy lost ground in August and September. As of the nine-month mark, five sectors are negative year-to-date: Utilities, Real Estate, Healthcare, Financial Services, and Staples. That shows deterioration from the end of August, when three were negative. After a double-digit percentage decline for stocks in 2022, Argus is modeling better-than-normal returns in 2023, meaning S&P 500 appreciation in low-double-digit percentages. We are sticking by our forecast despite the September selloff. A normally advancing market typically is led by growth sectors. After 2022, investors are used to buying cyclical, defensive, interest-rate-sensitive, and inflation-beneficiary stocks. In order for the market to recover some of its September losses, we need to see a more broad-based advance from a sector perspective in the final quarter.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The growth prospects for the artificial intelligence (AI) universe are impressive, yet hard to determine. Argus has derived a model of the size and scope of the global AI industry, based on our coverage of the major publicly-traded players and most of the mid-tier players, along with our industry analysts' knowledge of private players. We estimate the global AI industry amounted to about $90-$100 billion in 2021, and expect it to grow at a 40% CAGR through 2030, when it is expected to reach $1.8 trillion in annual revenue. We expect annual growth to decelerate from the low- to mid-40% range in immediate years to the mid-30% range for years toward the end of the survey period. But determining a realistic estimate for the size of the industry is a challenge. Even for an industry that promises to redefine measuring tools, there is no measurable unit of AI output comparable to barrels of oil or tons of steel. As well, much of AI development occurs within labs and at universities, and the output is measured in tangible progress against objectives, not dollars or units of output. In the corporate world, nearly all the AI pure-play companies service micro-niches, have little measurable revenue, and are deeply unprofitable. For our list this week, we take a big picture view of three areas where AI applications are developing. In Big Tech, we believe much of the revenue and most of the profitability from AI is attributable to several giant U.S. and a few international companies that operate primarily in growth sectors such as Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary. Next, we note that China is also a hub of AI development, with companies like Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent (though Argus follows only Alibaba). Finally, Niche Tech has significant AI activity among companies pursuing advances in IoT, vehicle electrification, autonomous driving, automation and connectivity solutions for manufacturing, warehousing, construction, and other areas. Here are featured companies followed by Argus in those three categories.

Summertime Blues

The first-quarter earnings season has passed the halfway mark with 292 (or 58%) of S&P 500 companies having reported results through August 1. An impressive 81% of those companies exceeded earnings expectations, while the blended (actual and still to report) earnings decline is now projected at 5.9%, according to Refinitv. The Consumer Discretionary sector still leads with 36% earnings growth, while Energy is now by far the weakest sector, with a 48% profit decline. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost their outlooks during earnings season. Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst to market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus Coverage for which management has raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 2Q23 EPS reporting season.

Stocks started a new bull market in 2Q23, as the S&P 500 climbed 20% above bear-market lows from last October. For the quarter, the index climbed about 8%. Performance was narrow in 2Q, led by last year's laggard sectors, including Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. Last year's top-performing sector, Energy, and the Utility sector, were the worst performers in 2Q23. The average stock in the diversified Argus Universe of Coverage rose 4% in the quarter, and the median stock advanced 2%. The average Argus BUY-rated stock rose 5.7%, while the average HOLD-rated stock gained 1.2%. We recently raised our sector rating on Consumer Discretionary to Over-Weight, as the employment environment is strong. We also look for a pick-up in EPS growth in Communication Services and Technology, and expect these groups to pace broad market performance. Below are the top 10 performers from the Argus Universe in 2Q23, many from Technology and Communication Services. After that, we list the bottom five performers.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The first-quarter earnings season is wrapping up, with blended earnings (actual results and the consensus for those still to report) showing a 0.6% year-over-year decline, according to Refinitiv. That is considerably better than the 5.0% decline expected at the start of the earnings period, though still not enough to avoid a technical earnings recession following 4Q's 3.4% decline. Propelling the 1Q outperformance was a 74% beat rate (versus the long-term average of 62%), with strong gains in Consumer Discretionary (+55%) and Industrials (+26%), but drags from Basic Materials and Utilities (both -22%). Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost their outlooks during earnings season. Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst for market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus Coverage for which management has raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 1Q23 EPS reporting season.

Last week, we discussed how NVDA had supercharged semiconductor indices, the QQQs, and the overall market. Generally, investors are greeting AI mania with enthusiasm. But those with enough years in the market remember being burned by other manias, such as the "dot.com" implosion of 2000.

The major indices were mixed on Thursday morning amid continued debt ceiling uncertainty, though a stellar report from Nvidia lifted the Tech sector, which was up nearly 4%. Nvidia shares jumped 27% after the chipmaker reported strong fiscal 1Q results and issued much higher-than-expected sales guidance for the second quarter. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P rose 0.7%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.6%. Crude oil fell $2 to $72 per barrel while gold fell $18 to $1946 per ounce.

Innovation may be hard to define but, to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles, to a large degree - have moved overseas, where costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy is at its largest point in history and still growing. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products and services, and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would be contracting, not expanding, and capital would not be flooding into the country. Particularly at this juncture of the market and economic cycles, when uncertainty is high due to high inflation and rising interest rates, we look to innovative companies to successfully navigate the challenges. At Argus, an 88-year-old independent research firm that has innovated a time or two in its long history, we have focused on four types of innovative companies: Industry Disruptors; First to Market; New Product Specialists; and Product & Process Perfectors. Here are some examples of companies, featured in our Innovation Theme Model Portfolio.

Innovation may be hard to define. But to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles to a large degree - have moved overseas, where labor and materials costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, even during the pandemic and the current period of high inflation, has expanded to record levels. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products (such as vaccines) and services (such as Zoom calls) and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would not be growing, and capital would not be flooding into the country. The current high level of the U.S. dollar relative to currencies around the world attests to the confidence that global investors have in the durable and innovative U.S. economy.

We recently raised our rating on the Technology sector to Over-Weight from Market-Weight. As interest rates start to fall, IT demand in enterprise and data center markets is holding up. And mounting interest in ChatGPT could herald the age of AI, which could be a huge industry driver. Over the long term, we expect the Technology sector to benefit from pervasive digitization across the economy, greater acceptance of transformative technologies, and the development of the Internet of Things (IoT). Healthy company and sector fundamentals are also positive. For individual companies, these include high cash levels, low debt, and broad international business exposure. The sector is outperforming the market thus far in 2023, with a gain of 12.4%. Tech underperformed the market in 2022, with a loss of 28.9%, and outperformed in 2021, with a gain of 33.4%. The P/E ratio on projected 2023 earnings is 23, above the market multiple. Earnings are expected to grow 14.5% in 2023 after having fallen 3.3% in 2022. Earnings rose 37.9% in 2021 and 7.7% in 2020. The sector's debt ratios are below the market average, as is the average dividend yield of 0.5%. Here is how we use our analysts' Technology sector ideas in our Focus List and Model Portfolios.

As new threats to banks piled on to existing risks (such as inflation and the pandemic), risk-on assets have moved to the forefront of the equity-market advance in 2023. As of the end of 1Q23, the best-performing sectors for 2023 year-to-date were Technology (up 22%), Communication Services (up 20%), and Consumer Discretionary (up 16%). At the bottom of the year-to-date performance board are 2022's actual and relative winners. Energy was down 5.5% year-to-date as of the end-of-March. Several defensive sectors were negative, including declines of about 5% for Healthcare and 4% for Utilities. Financial Services, which had been up 6% at mid-month March, ended the first quarter down 6% on contagion risk. In our experience, growth sector leadership tends to anticipate recovery in the broader market. In the 2008-09 period, the S&P 500 bottomed in March 2009. Most Technology stocks in Argus coverage, however, began to turn up in November-December of 2008. A similar pattern emerged exiting the 2000-2002 "dot.com" implosion and 9/11 period: tech stocks put in lows in fall 2002 before the broad market began to move higher in March 2003 as the first Iraq War kicked off. After a double-digit percentage decline for stocks in 2022, Argus is modeling more-normal returns in 2023, suggesting S&P 500 appreciation in high-single-digit to low-double-digit percentages. A normally advancing market usually is led by growth sectors. But investors have become used to buying cyclical, defensive, interest-rate-sensitive, and inflation-beneficiary stocks. If the market does move higher for all of 2023, any advance from a sector perspective could be broad-based.

In 1Q23, stocks continued to recover from the bear-market lows of 2022, with the S&P 500 rising 7% for the quarter. Performance was led by last year's laggard sectors, including Communication Services and Technology. Last year's top-performing sector, Energy, was the worst in 1Q23. Financial Services, including banks, were not far ahead. The average stock in the Argus Universe of Coverage rose 4% in the quarter; the median stock advanced 2%. The average BUY-rated stock rose 5.4% and the average HOLD-rated stock gained 3.4%. Recently, we raised our sector rating on Technology to Over-Weight, and expect outperformance into 2Q -- especially if interest rates head lower. We also raised our rating on Financial Services, and the bottom five stocks in our list point to potential value opportunities.

Stocks edged higher on Wednesday morning as investors awaited the Fed's afternoon policy statement and follow-up comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. A 25-basis-point rate hike is widely expected based on the CME's FedWatch Tool. On the earnings front, Nike shares fell, despite better-than-expected fiscal 3Q results, as management warned of margin pressure as it works to reduce excess inventory. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil traded near $69 per barrel, while gold rose $7 to $1948 per ounce.

Stocks gave up early gains on Thursday morning, extending their recent losses. GDP data pointed to slower growth and higher inflation. The Commerce Department said that the U.S. economy expanded at a 2.7% annualized rate in 4Q, down from its prior forecast of 2.9%. It also reported a 3.7% increase in the personal consumption expenditures price index, up from an initial estimate of 3.2%. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 192,000 for the week ended February 18, below the Reuters consensus forecast of 200,000. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil rose more than 1% to $75 per barrel, while gold fell $13 to $1829 per ounce.

One silver lining of a down market is that stocks become more affordable. During the very tough 2022 for almost all equities, the Technology sector was one of the hardest hit groups. Many Tech stocks, which are traditionally growth stocks, now offer both growth and value characteristics. When stock values pull back, especially far back, it usually is not a good time for investors to retreat. Rather, we advise that shareholders look for companies with strong managements, desirable products or services, and solid track records. For this week's list, we did exactly that in beaten-down Technology. We used the Argus Research Screening Tool and applied the following criteria: the stocks must be in the Technology sector; must be rated BUY at Argus; must carry an Argus Financial Strength rating of Medium-High or High; and must trade at least 30% below their 52-week high. Here are the top 10 results, suggesting attractive valuations.

No one needs to tell anyone that these are unprecedented times in the financial markets. But we can add another strange phenomenon to the mix. Some 90 out of 100 times (maybe more), market sentiment follows price. That makes sense, even during bear-market rallies and during the initial lift from a bear low. But not so much this time!

Stocks pared early losses on Thursday, but still finished in negative territory. Investors weighed earnings reports from major retailers and tech companies, along with new housing market and employment data. Housing starts fell a sharp 4.2% to an annualized 1.425 million in October, but topped the consensus forecast. Building permits fell 2.4% to 1.526 million, also above consensus. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 4,000 to 222,000 for the week ended November 12, below the consensus forecast. Continuing claims rose slightly from the prior week to 1.507 million. The Dow fell 0.02%, the S&P 0.31%, and the Nasdaq 0.35%. Crude oil fell 4% to $82 per barrel, while gold fell $13 to $1763 per ounce.

When there are about 11 of 12 (guesstimate) hotter-than-expected CPI reports, the odds increase that eventually a cooler-than-expected report will print. It is amazing what the markets did on Thursday based on year-over-year CPI of 7.7%. Stocks soared along with Treasuries and metals, while the U.S. dollar (USD) got slammed. Even Bitcoin and Ethereum rallied sharply after their recent gashing.

Both the potential onset of recession (if the economy is not in one already) and the sharp move higher in interest rates have pulled the foundation out from under the equity market in 2022. Few sectors have been spared, with only the Energy industry in the green on a year-to-date basis. The broad retrenchment has dragged down small-caps, mid-caps, large-caps, and even the mega-caps that had previously pushed stocks to new heights as the economy recovered from the pandemic. In our opinion, some of these world-class companies have been oversold. For our list this week, we have identified 11 BUY-rated large- or mega-cap companies across numerous industries that are selling at attractive valuations and are more than 20% below their 52-week highs.

Stocks gave up early gains on Wednesday morning, extending their recent selloff. Bed Bath & Beyond plunged 22% after announcing plans to close 150 stores and lay off 20% of its corporate and supply-chain staff. The struggling retailer will also seek to raise cash by issuing new stock. On the employment front, payroll provider ADP said that U.S. companies added 132,000 jobs in August, down from 268,000 in July and below the Reuters consensus of 288,000. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil fell 1% to $91 per barrel, while gold fell $3 to $1734 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning as investors weighed new business activity and housing market data. S&P Global said that its preliminary purchasing managers' index for August fell to 45, down from 47.7 in July and the second straight reading below 50, which indicates a decline in activity. On the housing front, the Commerce Department said that sales of new single-family homes fell 12.6% to an annualized 511,000 in July, well below the Reuters consensus of 575,000. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Crude oil rose more than 4% to $94 per barrel, while gold traded near $1767 per ounce.