Top Wall Street strategist explains why he's abandoning an S&P 500 target

A year-end prediction isn't the best way to communicate value in the market to investors, Piper Sandler argued.

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Piper Sandler will no longer release year-end price targets for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) after concluding that the index no longer truly reflects the stock market's performance.

In a video interview on Yahoo Finance, Piper Sandler co-chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz explained the firmโ€™s reasoning.

โ€œIn the last few months, as I was trying to think about raising my target again, I didn't really feel that comfortable being intellectually honest saying that I can have a high conviction view of where the S&P 500 is going to end up,โ€ Kantrowitz said. โ€œNor did I think it really adds value to our clients who are institutional investors.โ€

According to a note from Piper Sandler, a small group of high-performing stocks, including โ€œMagnificent Sevenโ€ tech names such as Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Apple (AAPL), and Tesla (TSLA), significantly influence the market's activity.

Piper Sandler found that the top 10 stocks represented 75% of the indexโ€™s year-to-date returns. And, as Yahoo Financeโ€™s Josh Schafer observed, AI darling Nvidia (NVDA) was solely responsible for nearly one-third of the S&P 500โ€™s gains as of late June.

Kantrowitz maintained the importance of having a bullish or bearish view of the market and reiterated that Piper Sandler continues to have a bullish view for this year. Previously, the firm's year-end price target for the S&P 500 stood at 5,250. On Monday, the benchmark index closed at 5,572.

However, Kantrowitz cited how investors view large caps and smaller-cap stocks differently due to their respective performances. While the S&P 500 managed to reach all-time highs in the second quarter of this year, the average stock saw a decline in value.

Instead of focusing on the S&P 500, Kantrowitz told Yahoo Finance that he recommends clients prioritize "quality at a reasonable price" by focusing on companies that outpace their peers in terms of earnings growth but arenโ€™t the most expensive.

"You kind of have to sacrifice a little bit of growth, perhaps, in quality to find names that arenโ€™t egregiously expensive,โ€ he said. "Weโ€™ve got โ€” in the S&P 500 โ€” 50 names that have beaten the index this year, and itโ€™s not just about all AI or all tech."

Earlier this year, multiple strategists raised their targets for the S&P 500 due to the record-breaking rally that had continued to pick up steam. Ultimately, strategists are finding it difficult to keep up, and there may be more that take a similar approach to Piper Sandler and pivot away from monitoring the index.

Year to date, the S&P 500 is up nearly 17%.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JUNE 18: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on June 18, 2024 in New York City. After the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs Monday, U.S. stocks were up in early trading Tuesday. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on June 18 in New York City. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images) (Spencer Platt via Getty Images)

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