Tobias (Toby) Vogel

#CauldronChess continues... Oddly enough, Russia, which we know to be incompetent, is fighting a classic war of strategic maneuver. This is not #BlitzKrieg. This is #ChessKrieg. The use of terrain and topography to defeat fortifications is textbook. The new textbook. What is the very best way to lose a war, any war? Presume that your enemy does not know how to prosecute a war. Unlike the West, Russia has objectives, and they follow the terrain. There are no #Wunderwaffe, just one strategic campaign after another.

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Abdusaid Kuchimov, General Director of the National News Agency of Uzbekistan: How important is it for the Russian Federation to maintain dialogue with Afghanistan? Does Afghanistan currently occupy an important place in Russian politics? And what is your attitude to the processes around this country? Thank you. Vladimir Putin: Firstly, I want to confirm that the visit to Uzbekistan was very thorough, fruitful and effective. This format, perhaps, has not yet worked out for us with anyone, namely: on the initiative of President Mirziyoyev, we not only came to Uzbekistan at the invitation of the President with a large government delegation, but at the same time held a meeting of regional leaders. And it turned out that half of the Russian Government came to Tashkent and a huge number of heads of regions of the Russian Federation. Some heads of Russian regions enjoyed communicating with the leadership of the renewed Government of the Russian Federation in Tashkent, which was interesting, but they also interacted very actively with each other. This turned out to be very useful, even unexpectedly for me. This is the first one. Secondly, we discussed the problem of Ukraine, and President Mirziyoyev, of course, actively advocates a peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian crisis, and has repeatedly spoken about Uzbekistan’s concerns in connection with what is happening in Ukraine. But we are grateful to the President that Uzbekistan’s policy here is clearly neutral and very balanced. As for Afghanistan, we talked a lot about this. The problem that Uzbekistan faces is the problem of access to the World Ocean, to the seas, this is all clear. There are different options here, including the development of logistics through the territory of Afghanistan, all kinds of logistics: pipeline transport, railway transport, road transport, the supply of energy resources, electricity, and so on, and so on. And of course, in this regard, stability in Afghanistan is very important for both Uzbekistan and us. And we have always proceeded from the fact that we must proceed from reality: the Taliban control power in Afghanistan, and, of course, we need to ensure that all agreements at the level of the United Nations are implemented, including that the government be inclusive, with the participation of all ethnic groups of Afghanistan. This is a subtle, very important question. But we need to build relations with the Taliban government. In general, we have contacts. I know that Afghanistan is also developing this. We will move on, we need to somehow improve relations with the neighboring country, especially since Uzbekistan has a long border, and we need to ensure security and, I repeat, develop logistics. We agreed that we will definitely work on this together and explore these possibilities. Thanks a lot.

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Deep dive on the appropriate doctrine for #AttritionalWar. This is something people in the West are having a lot of trouble with. The short version is to forget about #WunderWaffe. If they cost $100M per jet, and only available for 29% of the time, working from specially prepared runways, with limited ordnance, you lost already. The same is true of industrial policy when facing competition that has scaled their production system with truly massive state-of-the-art automation. George C. Scott, playing General Patton put it best...  'Give me 400 000 gallons' It is the exact same problem with #CriticalMinerals. You cannot go develop a heap of new mines if you have no buyers. No business can operate without buyers for the product. NONE of this is complicated. EVERYBODY gets it except those in Washington DC and those who drank the Beltway Kool Aid. The result is very simple to forecast. The West bleeds out from its own self-inflicted wounds. It is not necessary. It takes actual skill and dedication to accomplish this demise. https://lnkd.in/gASq6RjA https://lnkd.in/gf9TWmiV

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“Guns N’ Kurtosis” Investing in a new Cold War era https://lnkd.in/e4kjYVrh The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 marked the symbolic end of the Cold War. But it was an economic not a military victory; a realisation in the Soviet Union that communism could never bring the same economic advancement as capitalism. It also began a 30-year bear market for European defence stocks. At the time of the Suez Crisis in 1956, the UK was spending 7.6% of GDP on defence, accounting for 43% of government spending (a similar ratio to Russia today). Since then, spending on day-to-day public services (excluding armed forces) has increased from 18% of GDP to over 35% during COVID: fifteen times the annual defence budget. Never had the UK spent so little on “guns” relative to “butter.” The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has along with American pressure for Europe to pay its fair share, been a watershed moment for the defence industry. If NATO European annual spend of $375bn increases from 1.75% to 3% of GDP and 50% of this is spent on equipment exclusively sourced within Europe, then annual industry revenues will double. But it is too simplistic for investors to think about the new Cold War simply about defence spending. War also has more profound economic consequences and wider investment implications, leading to greater risk of extreme events; what statisticians’ term “excess kurtosis” or “fat tails”, relative to a normalised bell-curve distribution. In the unipolar post-Cold War world, investors prime concern was the economic cycle, which could be managed by central banks providing liquidity at moments of extreme stress, most notably in 2008 and 2020. But central banks can’t resolve supply side problems, prevent de-globalisation, or fight geopolitical conflicts. This means investors must think about extreme “unpredictable” outcomes, structurally higher inflation, and higher volatility. The new Cold War increases the attractiveness of “outside” money in all its forms: cash, gold, crypto, and for the “Axis” their own currencies. War increases demand for commodities, which is inflationary, particularly when they are mostly owned and controlled by your enemies. The economic history of war suggests that rather than risk losing geopolitical conflicts, central banks of nations at war will backstop government debt, resorting to the printing press. The inflationary nature of war and the attractiveness of “outside” money means that gold – and its more volatile peer silver - should replace government bonds as a portfolio risk diversifier. To all investors in the new Cold War era: “Welcome to the Jungle” and think about both “Guns N’ Kurtosis”. 

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"This reveals more about the Americans themselves and ideas of global leadership than it does about the situation on the ground in Ukraine." Indeed. At the end of this, every single NATO military system of note will have been fielded, scrutinized by Russia, analyzed, and likely as not, captured in some form, to be reverse engineered. The #EW gift to Russia is incalculable. Over in the South China Sea, the different arms of the PLA will have built the most comprehensive EM, thermal and acoustic signature database of US, Japanese, UK and Australian ships, submarines and aircraft. In the past, the Chinese would have to send a #sigint spy ship into international waters off Australia to monitor exercises. They don't need to do that anymore. We come to them. They can rehearse #A2AD interdiction, search and destroy missions to their heart's content. They have hydrophone arrays all over the bottom of the South China Sea, busily gathering data. Pretty soon they will be able to tell when a US submarine driver is about to hit an undersea mountain :-) To achieve such results, you need #WesternLeadership. No other leadership is this stupid, this short-sighted, or this bad.

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🇵🇱🇪🇺🇵🇱These upcoming five years should and will be the best for Poland. Over this period, Poland has received €60 billion from the KPO national reconstruction plan and an additional €70 billion in EU funds as part of the EU budget for 2021 – 2027. We have already received the first PLN 27 billion for green energy, electromobility, and modern technologies. Subsidies cover up to 75% of the investment costs for these projects. The government is supportive of entrepreneurs and is open to new projects and investors. 🇵🇱🇪🇺🇵🇱The government is amending legal regulations to improve the labor market and facilitate investment. It is also restoring standards and procedures of conduct in institutions to ensure uniformity. Tusk and Sikorski are dedicated to enhancing Poland’s position in the world and Europe. Bodnar, the Minister of Justice, is restoring the independence of Polish courts and judges, aligning with European standards. Pelczynska, the Minister of Development, is refining the KPO and the reconstruction program to better suit the economy and simplify its use. Domański, the Minister of Finance, is transforming tax offices to support rather than repress entrepreneurs. 🇵🇱🇪🇺🇵🇱Furthermore, Poland boasts a robust infrastructure that facilitates business relocation, as well as special economic zones, clusters, and technology hubs. There is a significant opportunity for the so-called “shortening of the supply chain” from China and Asia to Europe. Poland is particularly attractive to new companies due to our labor market and the large presence of migrants from the East, especially Ukraine. 🇵🇱🇪🇺🇵🇱Since time immemorial, money has attracted money, investments have attracted investments, and investors have attracted investors. This is precisely what Poland has lacked over the last eight years, with investments dropping from 20% of GDP to below 17% per year. Investments are the foundation for stable development. In 2005, I negotiated the first EU budget for Poland, amounting to over EUR 67 million. These funds were used to build highways, broadband Internet, waterworks, sewage treatment plants, and new technological lines in Polish companies. Now, we have the opportunity for another massive investment movement that will transform our country and modernize Poland. I’m ready to roll up my sleeves. 🇵🇱🇪🇺🇵🇱We either board this Polish investment train or wave it goodbye. This is my “last train” as I am 65 years old. I am fully committed to it and ready to collaborate with friends, including business friends. Billions in investments are up for grabs, and only a fool wouldn’t seize them.

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Happier times for a two-time former European weightlifting champion, Oleksandr Pielieshenko, who was killed in combat in his home country of Ukraine while fighting the Russian insurgents. Mr. Pielieshenko is a former Olympian and is also believed to be the first former Olympian who has died in combat in this conflict. In my home, my kids are awaiting the summer birth of their first cousin on the maternal side - somewhere far, far away in a town called Ivano-Frankivsk, on the western side of the European country with a capital known as Kiev. Needless to say, not a day goes by when the war in Ukraine isn't all around us in real and imagined ways, worrying about others closer to the action. Even for those not on the front lines, the emotional and economic toll is exacting. You wonder how much longer this chaos will carry on and endure, and whether Ukraine is the beginning or the end of Moscow's 21st century imperial ambitions. France, by far, talks the toughest in Europe about the incursion and even more so than here in the U.S. There was mention - at least by Russian diplomats - of a looming NATO forward posture outside or inside Kiev in coming months, and this only further created greater tensions between the enemies. Just imagine: 75 years almost after first being kicked off as an idea, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization now faces, easily, its stiffest test. Should we stay or should we go now, as The Clash once so eloquently sang. Of note: no two democracies have ever waged batte on one another so this is certainly a main talking point for NATO as commemorations will begin in a year or so. The only problem is Russia is not in NATO, has no interest to ever do so, and is pretty darn comfortable meting out punishment and terror to anyone who stands in her way. Like the late Mr. Pielieshenko, for instance.

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Russia will be defeated, and likely will collapse. Long overdue (and requires a multilateral containment plan). But Ukraine must be able to withstand the onslaught until then, and preserve as much of its human and economic/industrial potential to remain a viable state and nation afterwards. Today, it is being bled dry. The Western military assistance must be accelerated multiple-fold, so that the Ukrainians gain the absolute air and technological superiority on the battlefield, as soon as possible. Write to your elected officials to do just that. #russia #ukraine #geopolitics

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----- Kazakhstan: Central Asia's Economic and Strategic Hub For years, journalists and scholars have reported that Kazakhstan's evolution from a post-Soviet backdrop to a well-respected economic and political player in Eurasia's geopolitics with a certain degree and surprise. I wouldn't call it a surprise; it is the fruit of profound strategic thinking. The dissolution of the USSR left Kazakhstan in an economic crisis. Still, our founders were able to use our substantial natural resources power and influence to restart the engine of revival and growh.  Today, in 2024, Kazakhstan is considered a serious international actor, a stable one, and an economic stronghold for the region, thanks mainly to its vast oil, gas, and mineral reserves. And EV economy reserves: cobalt, nickel, or lithium. The natural resources sector is a primary driver. Both traditional gas and oil industries and newer, more groundbreaking cobalt and nickel ones have made us a superpower in terms of extraction and export. The country's GDP growth from $11.4 billion at the onset of independence to $190 billion by 2021 is proof of that. Numbers don't lie. Beyond our resource-driven economy, our nation has more recently positioned itself as a critical transportation and logistics hub. It is from Khorgos to Aktau that China and the West connect. 11 international transit corridors are the superhighway of goods and services, from electronics to minerals - and one of the routes that make the global economy work seamlessly in these times of turmoil Geographically, Kazakhstan's location in the center of the Eurasian landmass offers unique advantages. It is instrumental in China's Belt and Road Initiative, and relevant for our other neighbours. We are, more than anything, a bridge. Kazakhstan's role extends beyond economics and geography. Our economic stability and national peace are aspirations for many others. We are able to influence the dynamics between its neighbors and the broader international community. Our role in international organizations such as the Organization of Turkic States—of which we are the largest member geographically—demonstrates how Kazakhstan is poised to become an increasingly important actor over the next few years. Our country's transformation continues to shape the dynamics of Eurasia. And in the future, I believe that our role will be even more important. Just you wait. #kazakhstan #centralasia #naturalresources

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Even if Ukraine wins, Europe will have to change. The “peace project” at its core will have to adjust to a world in which war is, if not likely, then at least possible. nato celebrates its 75th birthday this month, but its future as an alliance that Europeans use to ensure that America guarantees their territorial integrity is uncertain. Decades of reaping the post-cold-war peace dividend will have to be followed by higher defence budgets, as has started happening. But if Russia emerges even semi-victorious, change will be imposed upon Europe in far more unpleasant and unpredictable ways. Seeking an arrangement with Mr Putin that would reward his belligerence with control over bits of Ukraine if he promised not to wage more war will provide illusory security, if that. Europe’s answer to the question “what if Ukraine loses?” remains simple: “It must not. https://lnkd.in/dprNuEbx

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🇨🇭 Exciting developments in Swiss Parliament! On April 17, 2024, the National Council will vote on Switzerland's engagement in the REPO Task Force on implementing economic sanctions against Russia. This proposal, championed by a deputy and member of the GRÜNE Schweiz Les VERT-E-S suisses Franziska Ryser, aims to bolster global efforts in response to Russia's aggression. 💡 🤝 What is REPO? Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a coalition including Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, the US, and the European Commission formed the REPO Task Force. Their mission? To coordinate efforts in isolating the Russian Elites, Proxies, and Oligarchs (REPO) through targeted sanctions. 💰 💼 The impact? REPO's coordinated actions have frozen billions of dollars in assets and restricted access to international financial systems, crippling resources used to fuel Russia's aggression in Ukraine. 🗳️ Swiss Parliament's Vote: Mrs Ryser's proposal urged Switzerland to join the REPO Working Group, recognizing Switzerland's pivotal role as a hub for Russian assets and commodities trading. By actively enforcing sanctions, Switzerland can contribute significantly to ending the destructive conflict in Ukraine. 🔗 Interested to learn more about Grüne Schweiz-les VERT-E-S suisses and their perspective on international affairs? Learn more here: Rapport_de_la_commission_CPE-N_22.3451_2024-03-25.pdf 🔗 Curious about Future Russia - Switzerland's perspective on global diplomacy? Explore further: https://lnkd.in/edCCxuQs Let's stand together for peace and solidarity! #FutureRussiaSwitzerland #GlobalDiplomacy #GreenPartySwitzerland #SocialistPartySwitzerland https://lnkd.in/eV3Zv3XC

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Interesting proposals by Roman Sulzhyk. European Parliament European Commission U.S. Department of State U.S. Department of Commerce "World Bank forecasts of Russia’s GDP growth have recently been revised upward to over 2.5%, with inflation running at a manageable 7%. In 2023, the Kremlin received record receipts from the sale of oil, including, shockingly, some 181 billion euros ($196.5 billion) between February 2022 and December 2023 from the European Union, Russia’s biggest energy customer over that period. A targeted disruption to Russia's $2 trillion GDP, even by $50-100 billion annually, could severely impact its military capability and perhaps nudge the country toward regime change without causing significant global economic destabilization. Here are some ideas that can help achieve this goal.  Western governments should mandate their regulators to introduce the disclosure of Russia’s exposure for all publicly traded companies. A few simple line items added to investor reports will achieve this – the disclosure of taxes paid to Russia, total revenue from Russian sources, and the quantity of procurement from Russia would suffice. These transparent corporate disclosures will go a long way toward ensuring public firms can take more aggressive steps toward reducing or limiting Russian exposure due to informed pressure from their investor base. Second, a 5% surcharge on all remaining trade with Russia, the proceeds of which go to Western-managed Ukraine reparations funds, should be introduced and persist until all damages from Russian aggression are paid in full. Obviously, a complete ban on dual-use exports to Russia should persist, augmented with heavy fines (up to 20 times the value of goods sold) imposed on countries and corporations, enabling the subversion of sanctions regimes. The proceeds of these fines should also go to the reparations fund. Given the amount of trade remaining between G7 countries and Russia, this can gain up to $10 billion annually in sustainable revenue. This money can be used to give procurement contracts to Western corporates to do projects that benefit Ukraine, like building modern roads and high-speed railways and reconstructing destroyed buildings and infrastructure. Giving contracts directly to Western companies alleviates the agency problem of giving the funds to the Ukrainian government. This mechanism can also be used to deploy some of the $300 billion in frozen Russian state assets, which undoubtedly will be confiscated. Knowing that the bulk of the money will be deployed by Western corporates should make the political decision of actually seizing the assets much easier to enact." Full piece - by the link below. #makerussiapay #russiasanctions #sanctionrussia #stopbusinesswithrussia #stopbusinessinrussia #exitrussia #leaverussia #boycottrussia

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10 Takeaways from Ukrainian Recovery Conference 2024... 1. European attendees were more sanguine about Ukraine's victory than many Ukrainians. 2. Ukraine has four urgent needs: air superiority, munitions, money, and manpower. NATO is not adequately supporting any of these at this moment. The rhetoric of URC2024 exceeds the resources given to Ukraine. 3. Ukraine cannot possibly recover unless it prevails. At the macro level, the math is simple. Given the still remarkably weak sanctions regime, Russia spends $100bn a year to rape, murder, and pillage in Ukraine. At least $1bn of that comes directly from NATO companies still operating in Russia. Ukraine can afford maybe $40bn to defend itself. That leaves $60bn that must be provided to keep Russian bears out of Ukrainian homes. It comes in fits and starts and with little degree of dependability. And with too many strings attached. 4. When victory is achieved, unless Ukraine is immediately admitted to the EU, it risks becoming a failed state. Today, all factions of Ukraine are united to defend their homeland. However, without the unifying focus of the war, the Army, the Volunteers, the Oligarchs, the Civil Society, and the remains of the old Ukraine will make a mess of what the new Ukraine could become. 5. Ukraine must become integrated into NATO. Russia will never give up trying to conquer it. More than that, NATO needs Ukraine's defense industrial base for its own deterrence. This war has proven that NATO cannot fight a modern war as it currently operates and with its current lack of a DIB. 6. After the current war is won, regardless of the "guarantees" provided, Ukraine cannot depend on NATO to provide it with the air superiority, munitions, money, and manpower required to defend itself. Given NATO's fear of Russia's nuclear arsenal and the US unwillingness to live up to its responsibility as the only democratic superpower, Ukraine can only be truly secure with its own nuclear arsenal. 7. Ukraine will require private investment to recover. It is not prepared to be attractive to foreign capital. Almost no providers of private capital were invited to URC2024. That should be remedied for URC2025 (Ministero degli Affari Esteri e della Cooperazione Internazionale). 8. There was a lack of US presence. It was Germany's party, but by my count, the Baltic states had more attendees than the USG. 9. Ukraine showed up at URC2024 ready to play. All the key ministers were there, as well as Zelenskyy. 10. Takeaways 1, 2, & 3 above must be addressed immediately. #urc2024 #urc2025 #ukraine Angela Sax Alexander McWhorter Andy Hunder Judith Baker John Moran Roman Sheremeta Marianna Kozintseva Marijn Markus Andrea Januta Siobhán O'Grady Ukraine.ua #slavaunkraini Veronika Melkozerova Kyiv Post The Kyiv Independent

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