Dawud Ansari داوود الأنصاري

• This study presents three plausible yet disruptive scenarios for the geo­politics of hydrogen up to the year 2040 (developed with a team of experts in a multi-stage foresight process). “Hydrogen Realignment” considers the possibility of an eastward shift of industry, power, and technological lead­er­ship; “Hydrogen (In)Dependence” depicts a future, in which Europe pur­sues hydrogen self-sufficiency but becomes dependent on raw material supply; and “Hydrogen Imperialism” delves into the… Mehr anzeigen

• This study presents three plausible yet disruptive scenarios for the geo­politics of hydrogen up to the year 2040 (developed with a team of experts in a multi-stage foresight process). “Hydrogen Realignment” considers the possibility of an eastward shift of industry, power, and technological lead­er­ship; “Hydrogen (In)Dependence” depicts a future, in which Europe pur­sues hydrogen self-sufficiency but becomes dependent on raw material supply; and “Hydrogen Imperialism” delves into the dystopian scenario of a hydrogen transition dominated by hegemons and despots.
• The transition to hydrogen is likely to shift and complicate Europe’s exter­nal dependence rather than eliminate it; the role of supply chains will become more important. Moreover, the potential of hydrogen trade for global sustainable development is limited and requires targeted efforts.
• Resource distribution, production potential, current geopolitical power dynamics, and their interplay will influence hydrogen policy and deci­sion-making along the entire value chain, with actors often giving priority to socioeconomic, geopolitical, and technopolitical considerations.
• Germany and the EU must pursue a proactive hydrogen strategy, acknowl­edge the preferences of external actors, and form pragmatic partnerships to keep sight of climate goals, retain industry, and avoid losing global influence.
• In addition to promoting targeted technologies, decision-makers must manage dependencies across sectors and do so in an anticipatory way. Pursuing diversification is indispensable, and instituting targeted diplomacy and development assistance would be helpful. The new hydrogen sector also needs governing institutions – for example a “Hydrogen Alli­ance” – to mitigate geopolitical risks and allocate investments correctly. Weniger anzeigen

Across public sectors in the Arab world, international consultancy firms already play a pivotal role and are further expanding their operations. Among other projects, con­sultancies have (co-)designed such high-profile strategies as Saudi Arabia’s‎ “‎Vision 2030”‎ and Morocco’s‎ ‎“‎Green Agenda”. Currently, they are stepping up their activities in national energy and climate strategies. Their operations involve almost no local public participation, which diminishes the legitimacy and quality of… Mehr anzeigen

Across public sectors in the Arab world, international consultancy firms already play a pivotal role and are further expanding their operations. Among other projects, con­sultancies have (co-)designed such high-profile strategies as Saudi Arabia’s‎ “‎Vision 2030”‎ and Morocco’s‎ ‎“‎Green Agenda”. Currently, they are stepping up their activities in national energy and climate strategies. Their operations involve almost no local public participation, which diminishes the legitimacy and quality of the policies crafted and undermines local development. Besides the ramifications for the Arab world, the consultancies’ work in that region also affects German and European interests, even when it is commissioned by European actors or international orga­nizations. If negative impacts are to be avoided, greater awareness and more transparency about the consultancies’ activities are needed. Moreover, it is crucial to scrutinise whether, when and to what extent it is expedient to commission inter­national consultancy firms. Weniger anzeigen

The European Commission aims to import 10 million tons of hydrogen annually by 2030. Decisionmakers at the EU- and member state-level, including Germany, are developing strategies to select import partners and to craft trade frameworks. This paper aims to assist policymakers in this process by identifying and examining the prospective criteria.

When it comes to discussions of Europe’s hydrogen strategy, we have identified five key goals⁠: the successful and swift ramp-up of imports;… Mehr anzeigen

The European Commission aims to import 10 million tons of hydrogen annually by 2030. Decisionmakers at the EU- and member state-level, including Germany, are developing strategies to select import partners and to craft trade frameworks. This paper aims to assist policymakers in this process by identifying and examining the prospective criteria.

When it comes to discussions of Europe’s hydrogen strategy, we have identified five key goals⁠: the successful and swift ramp-up of imports; affordability; consistency with funda-mental EU principles; global sustainable development; and strategic autonomy, geopolitical risk, and diplomatic leverage. This paper then elaborates on how these goals can be bal-anced, assessing trade-offs and proposing a system of weighting priorities. We then analyse what this means when it comes to selecting hydrogen trading partners and highlight the (potential) role of multilateral trade frameworks (“the Hydrogen Alliance”). Weniger anzeigen

Germany and the EU plan to import hydrogen and its derivatives from the Arab Gulf states. Although Germany has signed a joint declaration of intent with the Sultanate of Oman to this end, its efforts focus primarily on Oman’s larger neighbours. However, it would be a mistake to overlook Oman’s potential role within German and European energy policy, geostrategy, and climate diplomacy. Oman’s ambitious hydrogen plans can provide Germany and the EU with affordable clean energy; and enhanced… Mehr anzeigen

Germany and the EU plan to import hydrogen and its derivatives from the Arab Gulf states. Although Germany has signed a joint declaration of intent with the Sultanate of Oman to this end, its efforts focus primarily on Oman’s larger neighbours. However, it would be a mistake to overlook Oman’s potential role within German and European energy policy, geostrategy, and climate diplomacy. Oman’s ambitious hydrogen plans can provide Germany and the EU with affordable clean energy; and enhanced (trade) rela­tions with the Sultanate align with a value-based approach to trade, support global climate action, and stabilise regional power balances – thus preventing the potential of dangerous conflict. Weniger anzeigen

While the effect of energy on conflict is well-studied, scholars have rarely investigated the impacts of conflict on electricity (setups) and healthcare. Prolonged violence has exacerbated Yemen's energy crisis — a dynamic which has also affected healthcare facilities. We construct and analyse a dataset of healthcare facilities, including their power mix and conflict situation. The study addresses both researchers of the energy-health-conflict nexus and Yemen analysts. We perform interviews… Mehr anzeigen

While the effect of energy on conflict is well-studied, scholars have rarely investigated the impacts of conflict on electricity (setups) and healthcare. Prolonged violence has exacerbated Yemen's energy crisis — a dynamic which has also affected healthcare facilities. We construct and analyse a dataset of healthcare facilities, including their power mix and conflict situation. The study addresses both researchers of the energy-health-conflict nexus and Yemen analysts. We perform interviews, QGIS mapping, hierarchical clustering, and logistic regressions to review the situation, identify relevant patterns, and estimate the conflict's impact.

Our analysis reveals that most facilities (58 %) have no electricity, but patterns are diverse and non-trivial. Rural facilities have either never had electricity (‘Deserted Village Units’) or their power has been cut off (‘Brownout Stations’). In contrast, some facilities in cities have switched to sophisticated hybrid systems (‘War-torn City Hospitals’). A large, spatially concentrated group of mid-sized facilities managed to go from no electricity to all-solar (‘Solar Centres’). The role of conflict is non-monotonous and depends on the exposure and type. Both the most-affected and least-affected facilities tend to have electricity, while those in between are left behind. Ground combat decreases the probability of obtaining solar energy, while airstrikes do not. Knowledge and knowhow remain a strong lever to support development, e.g. by promoting hybrid systems and solar mini-grids. The dynamics showcase the transformative and redistributive moment of conflict which deprives some of electricity but facilitates novel technologies elsewhere. We advocate for research and policy focusing on technological shifts in conflict-affected countries. Weniger anzeigen

The COP27 (United Nations Climate Change Conference) in November 2022 once again highlighted the fact that countries are starting from different positions when it comes to emissions and climate policy. This Weekly Report classifies countries into representative profiles based on their past, current, and planned future climate impact. There is a high degree of diversity between the profiles; they are not determined by geographical factors, but rather by economic patterns and policy decisions… Mehr anzeigen

The COP27 (United Nations Climate Change Conference) in November 2022 once again highlighted the fact that countries are starting from different positions when it comes to emissions and climate policy. This Weekly Report classifies countries into representative profiles based on their past, current, and planned future climate impact. There is a high degree of diversity between the profiles; they are not determined by geographical factors, but rather by economic patterns and policy decisions. This also applies to European Union member states: Levels of past CO2 emissions vary, and some countries have no domestic carbon neutrality. Globally, most countries have not contributed to cumulative emissions but also have no plans to become carbon neutral. Weniger anzeigen

De-orientalising the scholarship on the Arab Gulf states is crucial, argues Dawud Ansari. Commentaries and datasets generalise them as ‘monarchies’, erasing vital differences between these countries. New terms are a starting point for transforming research on the wider region – an urgent objective given new crises and freshened global interest

Due to Europe’s gas crisis and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, ramping up the hydro­gen market has become more urgent than ever for European and German policymakers. However, ambitious targets for green hydrogen present an enormous challenge for the European Union (EU) and its young hydrogen economy. Apart from the demand for electricity, there is above all a lack of production capacities for electrolysers. The envisioned production scaling of electrolysers is almost impossible to achieve, and… Mehr anzeigen

Due to Europe’s gas crisis and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, ramping up the hydro­gen market has become more urgent than ever for European and German policymakers. However, ambitious targets for green hydrogen present an enormous challenge for the European Union (EU) and its young hydrogen economy. Apart from the demand for electricity, there is above all a lack of production capacities for electrolysers. The envisioned production scaling of electrolysers is almost impossible to achieve, and it also conflicts with import efforts and cements new dependencies on suppliers of key raw materials and critical components. Although a decoupling from Russia’s raw ma­terial supply is generally possible, there is no way for the EU to achieve its goals with­out China. Aside from loosened regulations and the active management of raw material supply, Europe should also reconsider its biased preference for green hydrogen. Weniger anzeigen

The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are mapping out agendas to kickstart a hydrogen economy. Especially Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are pursuing ambitious plans to supply Europe and Asia-Pacific with the carbon-friendly fuel. Numerous declarations of intent have been signed, and the first large-scale projects are under way. For the Gulf countries, hydrogen is not only a means of diversification. Since the hydrogen economy blends into the institutional… Mehr anzeigen

The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are mapping out agendas to kickstart a hydrogen economy. Especially Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are pursuing ambitious plans to supply Europe and Asia-Pacific with the carbon-friendly fuel. Numerous declarations of intent have been signed, and the first large-scale projects are under way. For the Gulf countries, hydrogen is not only a means of diversification. Since the hydrogen economy blends into the institutional and fiscal framework of the petroleum industry, it is primarily a chance for the GCC economies to maintain current economic and political power structures. While hydro­gen from the Gulf is an effective tool for climate change mitigation, Germany and Europe are faced with trade-offs and open questions. Weniger anzeigen

While the effect of energy on conflict is ‎well-studied, scholars have rarely investigated ‎the impacts conflict has on electricity (setups) and ‎healthcare. Prolonged violence has ‎exacerbated Yemen’s energy crisis through fuel scarcity and grid damages—‎a dynamic ‎which has also affected healthcare facilities. We construct and analyse a dataset of ‎‎5,183 Yemeni healthcare facilities, ‎including their power mix and conflict situation. The ‎study addresses both researchers of the… Mehr anzeigen

While the effect of energy on conflict is ‎well-studied, scholars have rarely investigated ‎the impacts conflict has on electricity (setups) and ‎healthcare. Prolonged violence has ‎exacerbated Yemen’s energy crisis through fuel scarcity and grid damages—‎a dynamic ‎which has also affected healthcare facilities. We construct and analyse a dataset of ‎‎5,183 Yemeni healthcare facilities, ‎including their power mix and conflict situation. The ‎study addresses both researchers of the ‎energy-health-conflict nexus and Yemen ‎analysts. We perform QGIS mapping, hierarchical ‎clustering, and logistic regressions to ‎review the situation, identify relevant patterns, and estimate ‎the conflict’s impact.

Our analysis shows that most facilities have no electricity, but patterns are spatially ‎diverse and ‎coincide with conflict dynamics. We also find a substantial rural-urban divide ‎regarding the effect ‎of conflict on electrification (setups). Rural facilities have either ‎never had electricity (‘Deserted ‎Village Units’) or got cut off from the power (‘Brownout ‎Stations’). In contrast, facilities in urban ‎centres have switched to sophisticated hybrid ‎energy systems (‘War-torn City Hospitals’). A large, ‎spatially concentrated group of mid-‎sized, semi-urban facilities managed to go from no electricity ‎to all-solar (‘Solar ‎Centres’). Our regressions deepen ‎these findings: while proximity to ground battles ‎decreases the probably to obtain solar energy, ‎proximity to airstrikes increases the ‎chances. The dynamics showcases the transformative and redistributing moment of ‎conflict: ‎it deprives some of electricity but facilitates novel technologies elsewhere. We ‎advocate for a research agenda that focusses on technological shifts in conflict-affected ‎countries to improve both sustainability and the livelihood of communities.‎ Weniger anzeigen

Since 2015, Saudi Arabia has led a foreign military intervention against the Houthi ‎movement, which took over major parts of Yemen. The intervention, which manifests mainly ‎in airstrikes, has attracted widespread controversy in media and politics as well as a large ‎body of (qualitative) academic literature discussing its background and ways to escape it. ‎Complementary to these efforts and connecting to the literature on oil and conflict, this ‎study provides unique quantitative insights… Mehr anzeigen

Since 2015, Saudi Arabia has led a foreign military intervention against the Houthi ‎movement, which took over major parts of Yemen. The intervention, which manifests mainly ‎in airstrikes, has attracted widespread controversy in media and politics as well as a large ‎body of (qualitative) academic literature discussing its background and ways to escape it. ‎Complementary to these efforts and connecting to the literature on oil and conflict, this ‎study provides unique quantitative insights into what drives the extent of military interaction. ‎We use a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyse the interactions between Saudi ‎airstrikes in Yemen, gains of the Houthi movement on Yemeni ground, their attacks on Saudi ‎Arabian soil, and crude oil prices. Our approach builds on high-resolution data from the ‎Yemen Data Project and the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project.‎

Our results show not only that the airstrike campaign has been factually impotent to repulse ‎the Houthi movement but also that the movement’s expansion in Yemen has not driven ‎Saudi airstrikes. These findings draw both suitability and justification of the intervention ‎further into question. Moreover, although the data fail to show that oil price levels drive the ‎developments, our model identifies oil price volatility as a determinant for the airstrikes. ‎However, the intervention has, in turn, no significant effect on oil markets. Besides adding ‎to the academic discourse on oil and conflict, our results have implications for energy and ‎climate policy: a coordinated transition might not deteriorate regional security, while ‎uncertainty and fluctuations can increase conflict potential.‎ Weniger anzeigen

Climate-related asset stranding refers to the depreciation of assets – such as resource reserves, infrastructure, or industries – resulting from the unanticipated changes, such as the tightening of climate policies. Although developing countries – especially fossil-fuel exporters – may be most concerned by this issue, its analysis in development (economics) has so far been limited.

We aim at enhancing the understanding of stranded assets by investigating its relevance in the resource… Mehr anzeigen

Climate-related asset stranding refers to the depreciation of assets – such as resource reserves, infrastructure, or industries – resulting from the unanticipated changes, such as the tightening of climate policies. Although developing countries – especially fossil-fuel exporters – may be most concerned by this issue, its analysis in development (economics) has so far been limited.

We aim at enhancing the understanding of stranded assets by investigating its relevance in the resource sectors of three case study regions –the Middle East, China, and Latin America. For this, we analyse the regional dimensions of four interdisciplinary global energy scenarios. Specifically, we extract results from a numerical energy model (energy production, energy consumption, electricity generation) for the three regions and introduce a novel index for stranded assets. The index identifies which fossil fuel sector in each region is most prone to asset stranding and should receive the most attention from national and international policymakers.

We find that considerable uncertainty exists for the Chinese coal sector as well as the Middle Eastern and Latin American crude oil sectors. We finally put our results into perspective by discussing aspects that are closely related to stranded assets for resource-rich economies such as the uncertainty in global energy and climate policy, the resource curse and diversification, economic resilience, and unequal burden-sharing of climate policy efforts between industrialised economies and latecomers. We conclude that China is more likely to engage in a green transformation than the Latin Americas or, still less, the Middle East. Weniger anzeigen

We compare prominent global energy scenarios of organizations and companies. We supplement the analysis with four own scenarios, which were derived from structured analytic techniques in combination with a numerical global energy and resource market model (Multimod). Our paper provides three central contributions: (i) a compact survey of selected outlooks with meta characteristics (conceptual nature, numerical framework, qualitative elaboration) and quantitative energy system indicators at the… Mehr anzeigen

We compare prominent global energy scenarios of organizations and companies. We supplement the analysis with four own scenarios, which were derived from structured analytic techniques in combination with a numerical global energy and resource market model (Multimod). Our paper provides three central contributions: (i) a compact survey of selected outlooks with meta characteristics (conceptual nature, numerical framework, qualitative elaboration) and quantitative energy system indicators at the global and regional (Europe, Asia-Pacific region, North America) level; (ii) numerous observations from a verbal analysis intended to stimulate future research; and (iii) the discussion of our own outlook. We find that scenarios essentially carrying forward current policies and/or trends lead to future worlds that do not meet the 2°C target of the Paris Agreement. Interestingly, there are both normative and exploratory scenarios reaching the Paris Agreement, and there is no consensus between outlooks on how to attain low-emission futures towards 2050. Some scenarios rely on a very strong role of renewables, others on a substantial role of negative emission technologies with fossil fuel use, yet others on assuming decreasing energy demand. There is a strong variation between outlooks with respect to transparency on scenario generation, modelling approach, and data. We argue that, in addition to transparency, the actual inclusion of a qualitative analysis of drivers and storylines helps ensure the political, social and technological feasibility of scenarios. Weniger anzeigen

Asset stranding–the unanticipated depreciation of assets (e.g. resource reserves, infrastructure, stocks) due to market shifts such as policy interventions or innovation–is at the core of current debates in energy and climate. This roundup presents prominent contributions to the discussion with a focus on fuel-exporting economies. We discuss strengths and limits of the concept as well as potential conceptual flaws and the perspective of resource-exporting countries. The discussion highlights… Mehr anzeigen

Asset stranding–the unanticipated depreciation of assets (e.g. resource reserves, infrastructure, stocks) due to market shifts such as policy interventions or innovation–is at the core of current debates in energy and climate. This roundup presents prominent contributions to the discussion with a focus on fuel-exporting economies. We discuss strengths and limits of the concept as well as potential conceptual flaws and the perspective of resource-exporting countries. The discussion highlights that the debate neglects the adaptation by market players to changing conditions. However, and despite the conceptual shortcomings, (economic) diversification figures and energy outlooks show that the (potential) issue is too big to ignore for resource owners and the international community.
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Yemen has been involved in a civil war with foreign military intervention since 2014. Throughout the conflict, the majority of the population have been cut off from the public electricity grid. However, as alternatives have been unavailable, the country has turned to decentralised solar energy, giving rise to an unprecedented deployment of solar (home) systems. This report uses own calculations, new household surveys, and extensive literature research to docu-ment Yemen’s solar revolution.… Mehr anzeigen

Yemen has been involved in a civil war with foreign military intervention since 2014. Throughout the conflict, the majority of the population have been cut off from the public electricity grid. However, as alternatives have been unavailable, the country has turned to decentralised solar energy, giving rise to an unprecedented deployment of solar (home) systems. This report uses own calculations, new household surveys, and extensive literature research to docu-ment Yemen’s solar revolution. While the report identifies central drivers for the diffusion of solar energy, it also discovers critical barriers: Since 2017, growth in the solar sector has been stagnating, since bottlenecks in the sector hamper a further diffusion. The article concludes with a set of recom-mendations for both international and local actors, and it shows how targeted funding and projects can set the course for sustainable development, energy access, and climate change mitigation simul-taneously. Weniger anzeigen

Der Jemen ist seit 2014 in einem Bürgerkrieg mit ausländischer militärischer Intervention verwickelt. Im Zuge des Konfliktes wurde die Mehrheit der Bevölkerung von der (zuvor zumindest teilweise vor-handenen) Elektrizitätsversorgung des öffentlichen Netzes abgeschnitten. Alternativlosigkeit hat das Land allerdings in einen beispiellosen Ausbau dezentraler Solarenergie geführt, welche zu Energiever-sorgung und Wohlstandsgewinnung beiträgt.

Dieser Bericht dokumentiert die jemenitische… Mehr anzeigen

Der Jemen ist seit 2014 in einem Bürgerkrieg mit ausländischer militärischer Intervention verwickelt. Im Zuge des Konfliktes wurde die Mehrheit der Bevölkerung von der (zuvor zumindest teilweise vor-handenen) Elektrizitätsversorgung des öffentlichen Netzes abgeschnitten. Alternativlosigkeit hat das Land allerdings in einen beispiellosen Ausbau dezentraler Solarenergie geführt, welche zu Energiever-sorgung und Wohlstandsgewinnung beiträgt.

Dieser Bericht dokumentiert die jemenitische Solarrevolution mithilfe von eigenen Berechnungen, neuen Haushaltsbefragungen und umfassender Literaturrecherche. Der Bericht identifiziert die Ge-schehnisse, identifiziert aber auch Barrieren für den Solarstrom: Engpässe in verschiedenen Bereichen des Solarsektors behindern eine weitere Verbreitung der Solarenergie. Der Artikel schließt mit diffe-renzierten Handlungsempfehlungen für internationale sowie lokale Akteure, und zeigt wie durch ge-zielte Förderungen und Projekte gleichzeitig die Weichen für nachhaltige Armutsbekämpfung, Ener-giezugang und Klimaschutz gestellt werden können
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This study presents a set of novel and multidisciplinary scenarios (‘narratives’) that provide insight into four distinct and diverging yet plausible worlds. They combine qualitative and quantitative elements in order to reflect the interlinked and complex nature of energy and climate. We use the STEMPLE+ framework to include social, technological, economic, military (security), political, environmental, and cultural (+) dimensions in our narratives. We present the construction of the… Mehr anzeigen

This study presents a set of novel and multidisciplinary scenarios (‘narratives’) that provide insight into four distinct and diverging yet plausible worlds. They combine qualitative and quantitative elements in order to reflect the interlinked and complex nature of energy and climate. We use the STEMPLE+ framework to include social, technological, economic, military (security), political, environmental, and cultural (+) dimensions in our narratives. We present the construction of the narratives, which started with the generation of qualitative scenario storylines using foresight analysis techniques, including a facilitated expert workshop. We then calibrated the numerical energy and resource market model Multimod to reflect the different storylines. Finally, we combined and refined the storylines and numerical model results into holistic narratives.The study generates insights into the key assumptions and drivers of different pathways of (more or less successful) climate change mitigation. Moreover, a set of transparent and discriminatory indicators serves to identify which paths the world might take. They include quantitative results, e.g. emissions, energy consumption and electricity mix, as well as developments in the political or social sphere. Lessons learnt include the dangers of increased isolationism and the importance of integrating economic and energy-related objectives, as well as the significant role of civil society. However, we also show that the development of renewables and electrification are inappropriate indicators for a successful energy transition, as these trends are also consistent with emission-intensive scenarios. Weniger anzeigen

This report presents a novel and independent energy outlook1 towards 2055. Similar to other prominent outlooks, such as the IEA’s World Energy Outlook or the Royal Dutch Shell scenarios, our outlook illustrates possible global futures and provides readers with several insights on energy, climate, and interrelating fields. The outlook is the result of a three-year study by the research group Resource and Environmen-tal Markets at the German Institute for Economic Research… Mehr anzeigen

This report presents a novel and independent energy outlook1 towards 2055. Similar to other prominent outlooks, such as the IEA’s World Energy Outlook or the Royal Dutch Shell scenarios, our outlook illustrates possible global futures and provides readers with several insights on energy, climate, and interrelating fields. The outlook is the result of a three-year study by the research group Resource and Environmen-tal Markets at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW-REM).

Its development has been part of research projects for the European Commission and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. The scenarios (to which we refer as ‘narratives’) depict the broad range of plausible developments in the years to come (cf. Figure 1). Each narrative starts in 2015 and describes a plausible (but not necessarily probable) path of the world towards 2055 Weniger anzeigen

Swarm grids are an emerging approach to electrification in the Global South that interconnects individual household generation and storage to a small electricity network to make full use of existing generation capacities. Using a simulation tool for demand, weather, and power flows, we analyse the potential of an AC swarm grid for a large pre-electrified village in rural Yemen. Service quality and financial indicators are compared to the cases of individual supply and a centralised micro… Mehr anzeigen

Swarm grids are an emerging approach to electrification in the Global South that interconnects individual household generation and storage to a small electricity network to make full use of existing generation capacities. Using a simulation tool for demand, weather, and power flows, we analyse the potential of an AC swarm grid for a large pre-electrified village in rural Yemen. Service quality and financial indicators are compared to the cases of individual supply and a centralised micro grid.

While the swarm grid would improve supply security from the current 12.4% (Tier 2) to 81.7% (Tier 3) at lower levelised costs, it would be inferior to the micro grid in both service (Tier 4) and costs. This is mainly driven by the large pre-installed fossil-fuel generator and storage capacities in our case study. However, this situation may be representative for other relevant locations. Under these conditions, a swarm grid poses the danger of creating (possibly-undesirable) incentives to invest in diesel generators, and it may fail to support prosumerism effectively. Nevertheless, the swarm's evolutionary nature with the possibility for staggered investments (e.g. in smaller yet complementary groups of consumers) poses a central advantage over micro grids in the short-term alleviation of energy poverty.

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News & Views, doi:10.1038/s41560-019-0352-z

Advances in horizontal drilling have significantly increased US oil and gas production, but it is not clear whether the industry is viable if oil prices continue to be low. Researchers now estimate the break-even price for oil and gas from tight formations and analyse the factors that affect investment in drilling rigs.

In this study, we report on the current state of the international market for crude oil. The market data we analyzed indicate that competition has intensified as a result of the now firmly-established shale oil extraction industry in the U.S. Model-based simulations also show that supply-side shifts should only have moderate price effects. This applies to both an expansion in U.S. shale oil production and a disruption of production in OPEC countries. Market data and simulations indicate that… Mehr anzeigen

In this study, we report on the current state of the international market for crude oil. The market data we analyzed indicate that competition has intensified as a result of the now firmly-established shale oil extraction industry in the U.S. Model-based simulations also show that supply-side shifts should only have moderate price effects. This applies to both an expansion in U.S. shale oil production and a disruption of production in OPEC countries. Market data and simulations indicate that the crude oil market is currently in a new equilibrium that appears to be relatively robust in the short term. In the absence of further shocks, we can continue to expect a moderate price level for crude oil in the short term with corresponding implications for economic and climate policy.

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In diesem Wochenbericht wird der gegenwärtige Zustand des internationalen Rohölmarkts analysiert. Die Marktdaten deuten darauf hin, dass sich der Wettbewerb durch die mittlerweile fest etablierte US-Schieferölförderung dauerhaft intensiviert hat. Modellgestützte Simulationen zeigen zudem, dass Verschiebungen auf der Angebotsseite derzeit nur moderate Preiseffekte nach sich ziehen dürften. Dies gilt sowohl für eine Ausweitung der US-Schieferölproduktion als auch für Produktionsausfälle in… Mehr anzeigen

In diesem Wochenbericht wird der gegenwärtige Zustand des internationalen Rohölmarkts analysiert. Die Marktdaten deuten darauf hin, dass sich der Wettbewerb durch die mittlerweile fest etablierte US-Schieferölförderung dauerhaft intensiviert hat. Modellgestützte Simulationen zeigen zudem, dass Verschiebungen auf der Angebotsseite derzeit nur moderate Preiseffekte nach sich ziehen dürften. Dies gilt sowohl für eine Ausweitung der US-Schieferölproduktion als auch für Produktionsausfälle in OPEC-Ländern. Die Marktdaten und Simulationsrechnungen lassen den Schluss zu, dass sich der Ölmarkt gegenwärtig in einem neuen und kurzfristig relativ robusten Gleichgewicht befindet. Sofern keine weiteren Schocks auftreten, kann kurzfristig weiterhin von einem moderaten Ölpreisniveau ausgegangen werden, mit entsprechenden konjunktur-, aber auch klimapolitischen Implikationen.

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• Numerical analysis (static competition) can explain pre-2014 oil prices but not the price drop.
• Qualitative discussion analyses Saudi Arabian and OPEC oil politics.
• Most plausibly, OPEC attempted to defend market shares and test for shale resilience.
• A return to high prices under current circumstances requires large unilateral cuts.
• Shale oil might have increased competition permanently, but OPEC stays important

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2016.08.001

• Empirical analysis of the resource curse in Yemen 1970–2015.
• Workers’ remittances from Saudi Arabia transmitted curse symptoms in the 1970s
• Yemen has been governed by a patronage network resulting from the remittance curse.
• Post-reunification Yemen suffers from oil-dependency and a stagnating economy.
• State failure as a result of diminishing oil revenues.