Over the past two weeks, I traveled to New Hampshire to visit friends and family. What I saw makes me worried for Democrats in 2024.
This isn’t the first time I’ve worried that Donald Trump could win an election. In 2015, I warned anyone who would listen that I thought he had a chance. Most folks in blue bubbles thought I was crazy. “How could anyone vote for that fool?” they’d ask. “How could you possibly think he’d win?”
Those same people called me in 2016 asking what they’d missed.
The truth is, I don’t know. At least not really. Unlike political pundits who claim to have all the answers, I know that I have no more ability than anyone else to predict the future. What I do know is this: I have the same gut feeling today that I had in 2015, and that’s not good.
It’s hard to explain how that gut punch comes to be, but I’ll try. In essence, it feels like a repeat. Not of 2020, but of 2016.
Democrats are in control. Things are economically trending up, but the wealth distribution remains too top-heavy for most to feel the gains. There’s a general sense of complacency and mixed enthusiasm for the Democratic nominee again. Worries still center on age and relatability, and to a large extent rightfully so.
Meanwhile, the Republican base is fired up. They aren’t in control and they want to be. Project 2025 is underway. There’s more consolidation around Trump now than eight years ago. At the same time, a Trump-corrupted Supreme Court has ruled in favor of presidential immunity for official acts, fueling Trump’s base to seek retribution and permanent control.
All of this stands in stark contrast to the 2020 election when Democrats had a fresh and constant reminder of just how bad a second Trump presidency would be. Coupled with the lack of enthusiasm for a Democratic nominee, Republicans feel poised to seize the moment again.
I desperately hope I’m wrong, but signs of shifting enthusiasm appeared everywhere during my travels, and I mean that literally. Signs supporting Biden were few and far between, even in Democratic strongholds. Yet signs for Trump were displayed large and proud on lawns, barns, garages, camps, houses — you name it, they were there, just like in 2015. In fact, on the rare occasion I saw Biden’s name it was usually placed next to a pro-Trump sign with an expletive.
Conversations about both candidates echoed this theme. Over two weeks I didn’t meet a single person who was enthusiastically in support of Biden, even among self-proclaimed Democrats.
Everyone I encountered who wanted an alternative to Trump seemed to wish there was someone better. Perhaps someone younger who could capture more interest, or someone different who could shake things up.
Even if they were older and liked what Biden had done so far, that sentiment remained. Worse, I heard multiple people suggest they may not vote for either candidate, arguably the outcome Republicans most hope for.
But Trump supporters? They were still fired up for their guy, 34 felonies and all.
This disparity in enthusiasm matters. Elections aren’t won with apathy or logic. They’re won with passionate volunteers and community members who will defend their candidate to the bitter end and encourage others to vote for them. Trump supporters have this. Democrats don’t, and those in charge don’t seem compelled to change course. At least not that I can see, and I think that’s where the gut feeling that Democrats might be in trouble comes from.
But who knows? I’m not a psychic and I’m not offering any polls or statistics to back this sensation of déjà vu. It’s just the sense I get from living around average Americans in multiple states whose lives don’t revolve around politics, perhaps a rarity in political circles.
And maybe at the end of the day that lived experience will matter. Or maybe it won’t and the Democratic elite that have been so intent on keeping Biden will have been right all along. I hope they are.
Then again, what if they’re not?
Trish Zornio is a scientist, lecturer and writer who has worked at some of the nation’s top universities and hospitals. She’s an avid rock climber and was a 2020 candidate for the U.S. Senate in Colorado. Trish can be found on Twitter @trish_zornio
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