Ranking Fringe NFL Playoff Contenders Most Likely to Get into 2023 Postseason

The NFL playoff races have become dueling circuses.

At the moment, only three teams are more than two games removed from a playoff position. Three-quarters of the league is within a single game of a playoff spot, and 40 percent of the teams are either 7-6 or 6-7.

With that in mind, let's break down the lengthy list of fringe contenders. In this case, we'll rank them in terms of their likelihood of getting into the postseason. We'll include all non-division leaders within one game of .500 and one game of the playoffs, excluding the joke that is the NFC South where nobody is contending.

Based on momentum, injuries, remaining schedules, competition and overall team strength, here's how we view things entering the final four weeks of the regular season.

The good news for the Browns is that they're the only 8-5 team here following a big Week 14 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The bad news is that franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson is still out for the remainder of the season and this is a team that put up a combined 31 points in back-to-back road losses before beating Jacksonville.

Even worse news is that six teams are just a single game back of a Cleveland side that is now without both of its starting offensive tackles as well.

Still, the defense is strong, you never know what Joe Flacco might have up his sleeve, and the Browns don't have any overwhelmingly tough games remaining.

Cleveland might have just enough to pull this off, mainly because it enters the final run with an advantage in the win column.

The Denver Broncos have lost just once in the last two months and are coming off a dominant road victory over a decent division rival.

Beyond a Week 15 matchup with the struggling-but-strong Detroit Lions, they should be favored the rest of the year.

They could easily win that game, though, and considering Kansas City's issues, a shocking divisional crown can't be ruled out.

Russell Wilson hasn't been effective on a consistent basis this season and Nik Bonitto's latest injury is a concern, but Denver has a good shot at pulling this off.

A quarterback controversy in Kirk Cousins' absence makes it hard to get behind the Vikings with a lot of oomph, but a one-game edge on the rest of the conference's fringe contenders combined with a strong 6-3 conference record gives Minnesota a great shot.

The defense has been absolute fire and has surrendered 12 total points and zero touchdowns the last two weeks.

However, the Vikings' offensive issues—just 13 points scored the last two weeks—combined with a tough closing schedule (Cincinnati, Detroit, Green Bay, Detroit) could complicate things.

A crushing Week 14 road loss against the New York Giants ended a ton of momentum for the Green Bay Packers, which remain a game back of the Vikings and without tiebreakers in their favor.

They may have a chance to change that against the Vikings in Week 17, but that comes on the road.

Throw in the fact that the offensive skill positions have been ravaged by injuries and it's easy to wonder if Green Bay dug itself too much of a hole early in the season and peaked too early and for too short a time to actually make a playoff run in Jordan Love's first season as starter.

Still, because the competition level is low and the schedule is manageable, the Packers do have a chance to sneak into the postseason.

Aside from the loss of quarterback Joe Burrow, the biggest obstacle facing the Bengals is the fact that they're 0-4 within the division and 3-6 within the conference.

That's likely to leave them on the wrong side of most tiebreaker scenarios, although they have at least defeated the Bills and Colts head-to-head.

I actually have a good feeling for the Bengals, though. This is an experienced squad getting by with Jake Browning at quarterback and finding somewhat of an unexpected groove on both sides of the ball (the defense has surrendered 16 or fewer points in two of their last three games).

The finishing schedule isn't simple, but they should be able to beat Minnesota and Cleveland at home and Pittsburgh on the road, and even a road matchup with the Chiefs isn't as daunting as it used to be.

Don't be shocked if Cincinnati sneaks in with 10 wins.

There's little doubt the Buffalo Bills have playoff-level talent. They're likely the strongest team on paper among the 11 listed here.

However, an inspiring Week 14 road victory over the Chiefs might have been a case of too little, too late.

The Bills already have head-to-head losses to Denver, Cincinnati and Jacksonville. And two of their last four games come against heavyweights Dallas and Miami.

Sure, they could split those and beat the Chargers and Patriots to win 10 games, but they haven't won back-to-back games since Weeks 3-4, so I'm not about to bet the farm on them.

That Week 9 loss to the Packers is looming large for the Los Angeles Rams, especially after they fell short of extending their winning streak to four games Sunday in Baltimore.

The tiebreakers aren't on their side right now, although they should still be favored in their next three games against Washington, New Orleans (both at home) and the Giants (away) before a tough finale in San Francisco.

There's still a decent chance the Rams pull it off in a weird season, but there's a slightly greater chance they end up being the odd team out in a wild-card stalemate with the likes of Green Bay, Minnesota and maybe even New Orleans if they fall to the Saints in Week 16.

The Houston Texans are coming off a 30-6 loss to the New York Jets. It ain't easy to come back from that in December, especially with a rookie quarterback in concussion protocol and key starters Nico Collins, Will Anderson Jr., Blake Cashman and Dalton Schultz also hurt.

If C.J. Stroud can get it together, the Texans could still easily win any of their final four games (their biggest "challenges" come at Indy and against Cleveland at home), but it's starting to look as though they peaked when the offense went on a tear in early November.

With so many more experienced teams in the AFC mix, this is a toss-up at best. It helps that they've still got a shot at the Jaguars atop the wide-open AFC South, though.

The fact that the Seattle Seahawks were swept this season by a Rams squad that has an identical record doesn't bode well for their chances of stealing a wild-card spot in the NFC.

Seattle also has just one victory dating back to the start of November, and that came by a narrow margin at home against a weak Washington Commanders team.

The Seahawks are simply mediocre on both sides of the ball, and they next have to play the hungry and stacked Philadelphia Eagles in prime time.

Regardless of whether quarterback Geno Smith returns soon, look for Seattle to drift off the playoff radar before Christmas.

An out-of-nowhere four-game winning streak to kick off the second half of the season moved the Indianapolis Colts into a surprise playoff position, and that remains the case despite the fact that they came back to earth with an ugly road loss to the Bengals in Week 14.

Thing is, that was more likely the real Colts than whatever we saw during a weird, seemingly aberrational streak against generally soft competition.

And with Anthony Richardson down for the year and Jonathan Taylor and Julius Brents still fighting to return from injury, even a relatively soft closing schedule might not be enough for a deeply flawed, inconsistent and shorthanded team to win this game of musical chairs.

The fact that they went 0-2 against the division-leading Jaguars doesn't help, either.

The Steelers may be in a playoff position at the moment, but all signs point to them falling out of a top-seven AFC spot between now and the completion of Week 18.

Pittsburgh has lost three of its last four games, including back-to-back home defeats at the hands of two of the league's worst teams to kick off December. It's been held to 18 or fewer points in four consecutive weeks, indicating that former offensive coordinator Matt Canada might not have been the only problem.

What's more, three of the Steelers' last four games come on the road, and all four are against playoff contenders.

Throw in the fact that quarterback Kenny Pickett remains out while star defender T.J. Watt is in concussion protocol, and it's hard to maintain much faith in Pittsburgh amid a huge wild-card queue in the AFC.