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    Global economy

    This Month

    Presidential candidate Donald Trump arrives for the final day of the Republican National Convention.

    What is Trumponomics 2.0, and how will Australia manage it?

    Some of Donald Trump’s new economic plans may help Canberra. Most of them will leave us more alone in increasingly volatile world markets.

    • Susan Stone
    The question of a September rate cut is ‘wide open’, says ECB president Christine Lagarde.

    We don’t know when rates will be cut again, ECB says

    European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde says the question of an interest rate cut in September is “wide open”, and dependent on data.

    • Hans van Leeuwen
    Shareholders will back growth stories, but only if they trust management can deliver them.

    How to play higher interest rates for longer in equities

    Our super funds made two things clear: rates are likely to be higher for longer and equities are back in fashion. We ask some stock pickers to name their calls.

    • Anthony Macdonald
    Productivity growth in the EU’s big four economies has collapsed.

    Why Europe is becoming poorer than America

    Oversized governments in Britain and on the Continent have crushed productivity growth, allowing US incomes to grow twice as fast.

    • Ruchir Sharma
    Supporters of Marine Le Pen celebrate National Rally’s result.

    When the numbers just don’t add up

    MAGA in the US and National Rally in France are both making voters big economic promises, but their ideas have some massive holes, writes Paul Krugman.

    • Paul Krugman
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    Residential buildings in Shanghai, where the cap on prices of new homes has been relaxed.

    China’s home sales downturn slows after cities ease policy

    The turn in the trajectory of new home sales may offer some relief for China’s economy, which is on track to undershoot the official growth target this year.

    • Jeanny Yu and Tian Ying

    June

    Marine Le Pen after a press conference in Paris this week.

    France’s election could trigger market shockwaves, BoE warns

    The Bank of England’s alert comes before Sunday’s first round of voting. Polls now show the populist right potentially closing in on a parliamentary majority.

    • Hans van Leeuwen
    Li Qiang led the call for trade openness and decried protectionism.

    China’s ‘Summer Davos’ highlights corporate anxiety over tariffs

    A surge of cheap exports and industrial production supported by the government has propelled China’s economy this year. That’s prompted a pushback from trading partners.

    • Katia Dmitrieva and Lucille Liu
    China’s June 18 festival has proven just how hard it is to get consumers spending.

    China’s unhappy consumers have even given up on shopping sales

    E-commerce sales declined for the first time during the “618 festival” this year, reflecting pressures on retailers already locked in a gruelling price war.

    • Casey Hall
    French protesters take to the streets to oppose Marine Le Pen’s electorally victorious National Rally.

    ECB, Le Pen call for calm on turmoil-hit French markets

    France’s stock and bond ructions eased after the European Central Bank counselled calm, and Marine Le Pen sought to reassure spooked investors.

    • Updated
    • Hans van Leeuwen
    Raphael Arndt.

    World is looking ‘more like the 1930s’, Future Fund warns

    Australia’s sovereign wealth fund chief is reshaping its $200b portfolio as global risks hit a 50-year high.

    • Jonathan Shapiro
    Competitors take part in the annual dragon boat race to celebrate the Tuen Ng festival in Hong Kong.

    China’s broken housing market and a generation ‘lying flat’

    While wallets were open at last weekend’s national Dragon Boat Festival, Chinese consumers are still not spending enough to get the economy out of its housing hole.

    • Jessica Sier
    Elvira Nabiullina, head of Russia’s central bank

    Why peacetime will be a problem for Putin’s banker

    For Elvira Nabiullina, head of Russia’s central bank, demilitarisation could trigger the economic meltdown she’s worked so hard to prevent.

    • Kate de Pury
    Police clear the streets during clashes with anti-government protesters outside the Argentinian Congress in Buenos Aires.

    Argentine Senate passes Milei reform bill as protests rage outside

    The bill is key to overhauling an embattled economy, and includes plans for privatising public firms, granting special powers to the president and spurring investment.

    • Nicolás Misculin and Eliana Raszewski
    Chinese flock to Nanjing Road shopping district in Shanghai. Consumer prices have edged up.

    China’s mild inflation fails to quell fears over weak demand

    May inflation figures point to a mixed picture for the economy as domestic consumption picks up slightly.

    • Zhu Lin
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    After the column ran, Microsoft gave Bing a lobotomy, neutralising the chatbot’s outbursts and installing new guardrails to prevent more unhinged behaviour.

    AI could end India’s dominance in tech outsourcing

    This is not the first time an industry in the country has faced an existential challenge, although the last time was 300 years ago.

    • Andy Mukherjee
    J. Doyne Farmer.

    This physicist can prove that economics has it all wrong

    J. Doyne Farmer, an American complex systems scientist says the world is more predictable than we think, and he can prove it.

    • Will Dunn
    Chinese President Xi Jinping’s manufacturing drive risks creating a fresh China shock.

    Why won’t Xi Jinping fix China’s dreadful economy?

    Explanations for Beijing’s refusal to work on deep-seated problems include denial, ignorance and ideology.

    • Scott Kennedy

    The GameStop flurry masks the market’s underlying angst

    Investors are worried that the Federal Reserve is now overly preoccupied with reducing inflation, and could be missing signs that the US economy is weakening.

    • Karen Maley

    May

    David Rowe

    The man who would help Trump upend the global economy

    As a potential US Treasury secretary, Robert Lighthizer has more than trade policy to revolutionise.

    • Edward Alden