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    Australian economy

    This Month

    CBA shares roared to new record highs this week on the back of strong institutional demand, including from index funds.

    Has the CBA share price peaked?

    After the Commonwealth Bank’s latest record, analysts and fund managers are wondering whether the hyper-rally in bank stocks can be sustained.

    • James Eyers
    Presidential candidate Donald Trump arrives for the final day of the Republican National Convention.

    What is Trumponomics 2.0, and how will Australia manage it?

    Some of Donald Trump’s new economic plans may help Canberra. Most of them will leave us more alone in increasingly volatile world markets.

    • Susan Stone

    Rate rise chances grow as employment jumps

    The market is pricing in a one-in-five possibility that the RBA will increase the cash rate when it meets next month, after strong jobs numbers in June.

    • Updated
    • Michael Read
    On the day of Sir Robert Menzies’ funeral in Melbourne on May 19, 1978, the chief executive of CRA, Rod Carnegie, hosted Paul Keating for lunch.

    Rod Carnegie’s seminal lunch with Paul Keating

    Paul Keating reveals, for the first time, the pivotal conversation about the Australian economy with Rod Carnegie at lunch in Melbourne almost 50 years ago.

    • Tony Boyd

    Earnings season will reveal the real inflation picture

    Prices are still going up but many companies are realising the limits of their powers, and central banks should be paying attention.

    • Vesna Poljak
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    ACCC chairwoman Gina Cass-Gottlieb is hunting another trophy: JB Hi-Fi.

    The Good Guys debacle reveals inflation’s unexpected consequence

    When inflation peaked at 7.8 per cent 18 months ago, no one could’ve predicted how it would affect some of our big brands.

    • Anthony Macdonald

    Two-thirds of Australia’s ‘Xennials’ earn more than their parents

    Australians have an easier time moving up the income ladder than workers in Scandinavia, the US, France and the UK, new research shows.

    • Tom McIlroy

    Why we need ‘wickedly hard’ reform in Australia

    Such measures, however, would have to first wrestle the biggest policy reform chiller of all – vertical fiscal imbalance.

    • Karen Chester and Helen Silver
    Yarra Capital’s Tim Toohey is tipping a much tougher year than expected.

    More RBA rate rises ‘unwarranted’ as non-migrant jobs growth tumbles

    Yarra Capital chief economist Tim Toohey has cut his economic growth forecast from 2.25 per cent to 1.75 per cent in 2024-25, well below the RBA’s 2.1 per cent.

    • Ronald Mizen
    The MAGA and Brexit movements disobey the commonsense rules of economics.

    Economic logic always trumps junk politics

    Brexit, MAGA trade policies, and the Coalition’s nuclear power push will fail because they make no economic sense.

    • Craig Emerson
    Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus will announce the overhaul on Monday.

    Labor reveals personal bankruptcy overhaul

    The threshold for involuntary bankruptcy will rise to $20,000 and Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus will also launch consultations for a mini-bankruptcy regime.

    • Ronald Mizen

    Which states are in ‘the slow lane’ for retail spending?

    Retail sales in Victoria and Queensland are lagging the rest of Australia on a per-person basis, while Western Australia tops the spending charts.

    • Updated
    • Ronald Mizen
    AustralianSuper’s Mark Delaney had to play catch-up in the back half of FY24.

    ‘If it was normal, I wouldn’t be in a job’: inside AustralianSuper’s year

    CIO Mark Delaney realised he was too bearish and had to make an important call over Christmas. By April, it was reversed. Nvidia was at the heart of it.

    • Updated
    • Anthony Macdonald
     Student numbers are at around 786,000—close to pre-pandemic levels of around 756,000 in 2019.

    Slashing foreign student numbers would be economic self-harm

    Before the government puts the squeeze on Australia’s $48 billion university export industry, it should consider how much GDP it is prepared to sacrifice.

    • Bran Black
    Power prices are expected to be volatile through Australia’s transition to low-carbon energy.

    RBA inflation target challenged by power prices

    Other areas of the economy will need to offset the impact of higher than expected power prices to keep inflation within target, economists say.

    • Angela Macdonald-Smith and Ronald Mizen
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    Rising inflation tests RBA’s ‘limited tolerance’

    More rate rises could be needed, as soon as August, after the Reserve Bank noted inflation “increased the risk” rates would not rein in CPI as quickly as forecast.

    • Ronald Mizen
    The quality of healthcare outcomes has risen, but so has the cost.

    The public sector is the key to Australia’s productivity puzzle

    There is some cause for cautious optimism for increased productivity in the healthcare sector if outcomes can be more accurately measured and assessed.

    • Alex Robson

    June

    Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Andrew Hauser.

    RBA’s new Englishman tells Aussies: you’ve forgotten how rich you are

    If Australians don’t appreciate their fortune, as Andrew Hauser correctly points out, they may not be well placed to preserve it.

    • Michael Stutchbury
    Jim Chalmers believes Australians will be better off with more understandable information from the nation’s largest banks.

    Recession a 50-50 chance if RBA raises rates: economists

    As many as 100,000 Australians could lose their jobs in an inflation-driven recession likely to coincide with the federal election.

    • Aaron Patrick
    WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange leaves the United States Courthouse in Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands.

    Government under the cosh, keen to claim a win with Assange

    It’s still not clear how Australia managed to get the Americans to drop the process of law on a man they wanted for espionage.

    • Laura Tingle