The 2024 Presidential Election - Trump v. Harris

[monsterscraponme]

Now that Haley has dropped out of the race the presidential primaries are effectively over. I figured a dedicated thread is appropriate (first thread created so I think topic is within rules)

We've finally reached the moment everyone saw coming but no one was waiting for: a rematch of the 2020 election.

We're at the beginning of our post-primary analysis, but still no surprise: Trump is still reportedly struggling in the burbs. I don't see that getting much better for Trump. Anecdata, but as a Virginian, I can say a fair amount of suburban Republicans I know are turned off by him, a sentiment that I've seen only grow stronger with time.

NYT Gift - How Trump's Crushing Primary Triumph Masked Quiet Weaknesses

Donald J. Trump’s daunting level of Republican support helped him vanquish a field of presidential primary rivals in under two months.

But he still hasn’t won over one small but crucial group of voters — the men and women who cost him a second term in 2020.

His overwhelming primary victories, including more than a dozen on Tuesday that pushed Nikki Haley from the race, have masked his long-term problems with voters who live in the suburbs, those who view themselves as moderates or independents, and Republicans who backed Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020.

On Tuesday, Mr. Trump lost suburban precincts in Virginia despite carrying the state by a staggering 28 percentage points. In North Carolina, his 51-point victory was tempered by much narrower margins in the highly educated and affluent suburbs around Charlotte and Raleigh.

We also know Biden is not that popular either. Also, have you heard he's old? I keep hearing it. So much you'd think the only thing he's done as president is age.

/EDIT

Late edit but we all know Biden dropped out. Harris is likely going to be the nominee and I am updating the thread title to reflect that.

 

[Defenestrar]

Anecdata, but as a Virginian, I can say a fair amount of suburban Republicans I know are turned off by him, a sentiment that I've seen only grow stronger with time.

But are they more turned off by Biden? Which is the lesser evil?
Vote for the least evil or stay home (or cast third party in a way that is electorally useless).


That's the problem with first-past-the-post systems.

 

[Louis XVI]

The Washington Post went fishing for anecdata, asking a handful of Haley voters what they would do, now that it’s Trump vs. Biden. This response was…um…striking:

I think [Trump is] so irrational and, really, very frightening. I think that if he allowed this January 6 thing to take place, he could try to take over the next time if he doesn’t win this one. I just think he’s dishonest and I don’t want that—but I think Biden is, too….I definitely won’t vote for Biden. I will have to vote for Trump.

Honestly, she sounds exactly like my mother in law, who will hem and haw about how awful Trump is, and then vote for him anyway.

 

[Lt_Storm]

From my perspective, it's not so much that we are seeing a 'rematch' of 2020; given circumstances, that wasn't ever really possible. Instead, things are so much fucking worse. I mean, the 2020 election cycle ended with an attempted insurrection, and, now, that's almost just table stakes. I mean, in 2020 we were having discussions about if Trump was going to try and overthrow the government, but, now, the we have Trump praising the people who were jailed for that insurrection attempt as 'heroes' to the applause of a crowd. Screaming isn't sufficient.

But, Biden, a president who has made greater progress on climate change, the labor movement, child poverty, our staggering infrastructure debt, etc than any president in recent memory is, apparently, old so his still aged younger yet more decrepit opponent who, again, is praising the people who tried to overthrow our fucking government to keep him in power, apparently, a reasonable choice. Because old man is old or something. Screaming simply isn't sufficient.

 

[Shavano]

The Washington Post went fishing for anecdata, asking a handful of Haley voters what they would do, now that it’s Trump vs. Biden. This response was…um…striking:

Honestly, she sounds exactly like my mother in law, who will hem and haw about how awful Trump is, and then vote for him anyway.

Republican proven dishonesty plus expected overthrow of our system of government is not as bad as suspected dishonesty from a Democrat for these people. There's no helping these people; the best we can hope for is their dementia proceeds fast enough to completely prevent them from voting in the fall.

 

[Technarch]

From my perspective, it's not so much that we are seeing a 'rematch' of 2020; given circumstances, that wasn't ever really possible. Instead, things are so much fucking worse. I mean, the 2020 election cycle ended with an attempted insurrection, and, now, that's almost just table stakes. I mean, in 2020 we were having discussions about if Trump was going to try and overthrow the government, but, now, the we have Trump praising the people who were jailed for that insurrection attempt as 'heroes' to the applause of a crowd. Screaming isn't sufficient.

But, Biden, a president who has made greater progress on climate change, the labor movement, child poverty, our staggering infrastructure debt, etc than any president in recent memory is, apparently, old so his still aged younger yet more decrepit opponent who, again, is praising the people who tried to overthrow our fucking government to keep him in power, apparently, a reasonable choice. Because old man is old or something. Screaming simply isn't sufficient.

And don't forget that Trump's first term was blunted by 'establishment' Republicans and a relatively hostile SCOTUS. Those guardrails won't be there the second time around.

 

[Thank You and Best of Luck!]

The Washington Post went fishing for anecdata, asking a handful of Haley voters what they would do, now that it’s Trump vs. Biden. This response was…um…striking:

Honestly, she sounds exactly like my mother in law, who will hem and haw about how awful Trump is, and then vote for him anyway.

Yes. Propaganda is extremely effective. Perhaps one day Democrats will figure out how to leverage it themselves or at the very least figure out how to retard its effects.

 

[Lt_Storm]

And don't forget that Trump's first term was blunted by 'establishment' Republicans and a relatively hostile SCOTUS. Those guardrails won't be there the second time around.

Oh, ya, none of this is an analysis of what a second Trump term would be like; that's a whole nother magnitude of need to scream. It's just the analysis of the campaign and election, along with the, at this point inevitable, attempt to overthrow the government when Americans (hopefully) decide not to vote for that insanity.

 

[Auguste_Fivaz]

Ohhhhh, I am sooo looking forward to the CONVENTIONS! Yes, that all American Pageant, with speechifying, balloons, marching bands, and more voting for our candidates.

Oh wait ...

 

[Thank You and Best of Luck!]

We are in a suicide pact with imbeciles. It’s a little bit aggravating. The imbeciles I can tolerate, but the suicide pact I could do without.

 

[Dr Nno]

Watching from afar, I'd say you Muricans have an opportunity to fuck it up for all of us. And trusting the intelligence of the Average American Voter for our future may not be the most encouraging thought.

 

[Technarch]

Watching from afar, I'd say you Muricans have an opportunity to fuck it up for all of us. And trusting the intelligence of the Average American Voter for our future may not be the most encouraging thought.

You’re not wrong. Witness the inevitable result of decades of legalized corruption and media brainwashing. Learn from our fail.

I find myself wishing that other countries would get in on the social media disinformation game. Only with disdisinformation. We seem to be unable to counter the flood of bullshit ourselves.

 

[Defenestrar]

Green convention isn't until mid June, but Stein seems to be way ahead in primary votes so far.

 

[GloatingSwine]

We also know Biden is not that popular either. Also, have you heard he's old? I keep hearing it. So much you'd think the only thing he's done as president is age.

That's not fair, he's also stood and watched the Republican court to strip away abortion rights from a significant proportion of the female population of the nation without so much as a strong statement on what he's going to do about it.

Even when he does talk about it he makes it very clear he's reluctantly doing so for political reasons and is personally anti-abortion for religious reasons.

For just about every facet of the Democrat electorate Biden is the worst guy, Crime Bill Biden did as much as any Republican to criminalise Blackness, Bankruptcy Protection Biden did as much as any politician to skyrocket the student debts he's now belatedly somewhat relieving, Catholic Biden watched your abortion rights die and promises nothing because he wants nothing, and Zionist Biden is mildly perturbed about a genocide he's helped foment and arm the perpetrators of.

Fear of Trump is all you've got unless someone can finally lodge a boot far enough up Biden's ass that he starts to make noise about how he's actually going to embrace the things his electorate wants instead of taking them for granted whilst his advisors cozy up to old white Republicans (and then blaming them if he loses instead of engaging in even a second of introspection. See: Hillary).

 

[necklessone]

That's not fair, he's also stood and watched the Republican court to strip away abortion rights from a significant proportion of the female population of the nation without so much as a strong statement on what he's going to do about it.

What exactly do you expect the president to do about this?

 

[wrylachlan]

For just about every facet of the Democrat electorate Biden is the worst guy

Dat you Vlad?

How you come away with that looking at his presidential record is beyond me.

 

[GloatingSwine]

What exactly do you expect the president to do about this?

Wrong question. The real question is "why would anyone vote for Biden if he won't?"

The lesson the Democrats seem to refuse to learn is that their losses and failures are their fault not the fault of the electorate. They need to actually be the people that people want to vote for.

Dat you Vlad?

How you come away with that looking at his presidential record is beyond me.

Is the genocide in Gaza still happening? Is the US still vetoing UN calls for that to change? Does he even have a plan to look like he gives a shit about abortion rights?

If Biden loses it will be Biden's own fault. You absolutely need to work from that position if you don't want it to happen.

 

[necklessone]

Wrong question. The real question is "why would anyone vote for Biden if he won't?"

Won’t what? My question wasn’t the wrong question; the president is not an omnipotent dictator who can change federal and state laws in a whim.

So what is Biden supposed to do about abortion rights?

 

[GloatingSwine]

Won’t what? My question wasn’t the wrong question; the president is not an omnipotent dictator who can change federal and state laws in a whim.

So what is Biden supposed to do about abortion rights?

The president can at least sound like he wants to change those laws. Make a direct campaign promise that he's going to introduce legislation to provide that right and bully the next designated Democrat villain if they think about holding it up. Openly and publicly embrace a pro-choice position.

But he won't, because Joe Biden on a personal level is anti-abortion.

So he's going to vacillate and hem and haw about it and give absolutely nobody any hope that he'll do anything if he gets elected.

 

[DarthSlack]

The president can at least sound like he wants to change those laws. Make a direct campaign promise that he's going to introduce legislation to provide that right and bully the next designated Democrat villain if they think about holding it up. Openly and publicly embrace a pro-choice position.

But he won't, because Joe Biden on a personal level is anti-abortion.

So he's going to vacillate and hem and haw about it and give absolutely nobody any hope that he'll do anything if he gets elected.

From the White House:

Today is an important milestone in ensuring access to mifepristone, a drug that has been approved by the Food and Drug Administration as safe and effective for more than 20 years. With major retail pharmacy chains newly certified to dispense medication abortion, many women will soon have the option to pick up their prescription at a local, certified pharmacy—just as they would for any other medication. I encourage all pharmacies that want to pursue this option to seek certification.

The stakes could not be higher for women across America. In the face of relentless attacks on reproductive freedom by Republican elected officials, Vice President Harris and I will continue to fight to ensure that women can get the health care they need, to defend the Food and Drug Administration’s independent and evidence-based approval and regulation of mifepristone, and to restore the protections of Roe v. Wade in federal law.

Seems to me like that's the opposite of vacillating and hem and haw. So again, exactly what should he be doing?

 

[monsterscraponme]

In late January, Biden publicly called on Congress to codify Roe V. Wade and called out Republicans on their dangerous positions, positions that are emboldened and made even more possible by Trump.

I get I made a joke about Biden's age, but I think you may have read way too much into why I did that.

And yes, I will admit I have fear of hard-right positions taking further root. I'm not ashamed to say that, but loosely equating Republicans to Democrats (even if that isn't your intention) should have went out of style after 2016.

1/22/24 Transcript: Remarks by President Biden Before Meeting With His Task Force on Reproductive Healthcare Access
Accompanying video of that speech

 

[Happysin]

Watching from afar, I'd say you Muricans have an opportunity to fuck it up for all of us. And trusting the intelligence of the Average American Voter for our future may not be the most encouraging thought.

I will lean on what is hopefully prophetic wisdom about Americans from Winston Churchill. “Americans can always be trusted to do the right thing, once all other possibilities have been exhausted.”

 

[puppies]

In 2024, the "both sides are the same" argument feels incredibly out of touch, especially with regard to abortion. When faced with a party that, in their estimation, doesn't work hard enough to secure women's rights, versus another one that is loudly hostile and outright regressive; how does anyone who genuinely cares about the issue not see the clear and present danger?

 

[karolus]

In 2024, the "both sides are the same" argument feels incredibly out of touch, especially with regard to abortion. When faced with a party that, in their estimation, doesn't work hard enough to secure women's rights, versus another one that is loudly hostile and outright regressive; how does anyone who genuinely cares about the issue not see the clear and present danger?

People echoing that sentiment are betraying their privilege—many that do so have optionality to avoid the consequences of retrograde policies. They lack empathy for how those decisions affect the less fortunate who bear the consequences. Perhaps even feel a bit of contempt for those who vote against their best interests.

 

[Louis XVI]

People echoing that sentiment are betraying their privilege—many that do so have optionality to avoid the consequences of retrograde policies. They lack empathy for how those decisions affect the less fortunate who bear the consequences. Perhaps even feel a bit of contempt for those who vote against their best interests.

Or rather, they think they have optionality to avoid the consequences. These things have a tendency to spiral beyond what people imagined.

 

[papadage]

Or rather, they think they have optionality to avoid the consequences. These things have a tendency to spiral beyond what people imagined.

Nope, they are just being assholes. I am Gen-X, and every time I hear one of my generation call Biden a fossil and then effectively soft-pedal how much of a menace Trump would be in a second term, it's fucking infuriating. They m,ay vote for Biden in the end, but they give cover and encouragement to those who will not vote because Biden is old and does not conform to every position they want a candidate to conform to.

It's bullshit. Biden has literally contributed to MORE progressive positions than Cart, Clinton, and Obama combined. There's a lot of dumb shit being said. Sure, his position on Israel and the Palestinian massacre is fucking terrible, but Trump's would be worse. Much worse. He would cover for their killing of every single Palestinian.

 

[sword_9mm]

People probably don't care enough about that stuff in general. The president is so far removed from daily life it's just turned into a sport-ball game to folks. Doesn't help that a lot of our votes don't even count so why bother. I'm not even sure why the sports-ball team folks care. I consider the presidency an illegitimate office honestly. When half our votes are thrown in the trash it's hard to give a shit. I got better things to do.

 

[papadage]

^

Case in point.

 

[Ecmaster76]

Green convention isn't until mid June, but Stein seems to be way ahead in primary votes so far.

Hmm, I guess we should keep the primary thread going too.

Just in case

 

[Defenestrar]

Hmm, I guess we should keep the primary thread going too.

Just in case

I haven't looked into the Libertarian, Constitution, or Socialist contests either

 

[karolus]

Speaking of, almost nostalgic for another perennial dark horse candidate—Lyndon LaRouche. He seemed rather out there for his time, but would almost be mainstream by today's standards.

 

[QtDevSvr]

People probably don't care enough about that stuff in general. The president is so far removed from daily life it's just turned into a sport-ball game to folks. Doesn't help that a lot of our votes don't even count so why bother. I'm not even sure why the sports-ball team folks care. I consider the presidency an illegitimate office honestly. When half our votes are thrown in the trash it's hard to give a shit. I got better things to do.

Do you mean that bolded statement literally? (To any significant extent? -- doesn't have to be "half".)

 

[Defenestrar]

Do you mean that bolded statement literally? (To any significant extent? -- doesn't have to be "half".)

First-past-the-post (FPTP) voting essentially does that. The losing "half" of the votes have no influence in the decision. That's why it's a system that optimizes for least-evil. Other voting systems, (instant runoff, ranked choice, approval, etc…) optimize for the best choice or the most consensus. Mathematically FPTP will devolve into a two-party system within a few election cycles and represent a minority of what people actually want.

Here is a series of short fun videos that explains it really well without devolving into game theory jargon.

Edit: This is also why I would have supported Lawrence Lessig when he tried running for president.

 

[papadage]

We vote in the system we have. Voting for Lessig in a general election is literally a half-vote for Trump.

 

[Not_an_IT_guy]

Or rather, they think they have optionality to avoid the consequences. These things have a tendency to spiral beyond what people imagined.

nonsense, the leopard will never eat MY face.

 

[papadage]

I don't think they even think that far ahead. These are people who are expressing juvenile self-centeredness.

 

[karolus]

It's similar to people who pride themselves on their lack of voter participation. Some get downright indignant when asked why they do so.

 

[Technarch]

It's similar to people who pride themselves on their lack of voter participation. Some get downright indignant when asked why they do so.

Friend of mine has a couple of inlaws like that. Bitch about politics all the time, never voted in their lives. Drives him nuts.

 

[Defenestrar]

We vote in the system we have. Voting for Lessig in a general election is literally a half-vote for Trump.

Lessig was in the democrat's primary in '16 (I think) before that party changed the rules required to get into the debate.

 

[SunRaven01]

It's similar to people who pride themselves on their lack of voter participation. Some get downright indignant when asked why they do so.

I had the most amazing conversation with my dad about this -- Vietnam war veteran, resident of very rural north Florida. We never really talked about politics, but he was definitely biased by his experiences in war, and in the aftermath with the reception that veterans received back in the United States. I had him mentally put into the "conservative voter" box. He had an irrational hatred for Nancy Pelosi, but he could never articulate a reason for why.

At one point, for really convoluted and facepalming reasons, he acquired a felony drug conviction. During the run up to the election season in another year, I was curious and asked him if Florida was a state that disenfranchised felons. He told me he didn't know what that word meant. I explained it mean that he had lost his right to vote. He said to me, and I quote this next part verbatim, that he had never voted, because, "we live under a totalitarian regime and I'm not voting to keep them in power."

I was ... well, bemused is one word for it, I guess. Later again, during another primary season, I mentioned having voted for Warren, and he proudly told me he was a Bernie voter. I never did find out if he was adding voter fraud to his drug conviction.

Ahhh, my father. I could tell you so many stories about that man. All of them too wild for Hollywood.